Tuesday, September 20, 2011

9/20 Forex

GBP/DKK broke above its sideways range on Sept. 12 but quickly fell back, and today it has bounced strongly off of the 68.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10

I'm not yet ready to declare it a directional play for my own trading, but the Fib picture, the strong bounce and the bullish 40/10 moving averages suggest that the pair is worth watching.

GBP/JPY has been pressing against a declining lower boundary of the 20-day price channel since Sept. 6. Today so far is a pullback into the channel, but I'm looking to climb aboard for a short ride with the next breakout.

sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10

The hour-chart has been in an uptrend since 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday.

(I do have huge misgivings about JPY -- I could see Tokyo doing what Geneva did to CHF: Massive and sudden intervention to protect against a further strengthening of the yen.

GBP/USD is showing a similar price-channel pattern. No intervention fears, though, which probably makes it the safer play.

sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10


  • phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
  • trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for neither.
  • adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
  • 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

No comments:

Post a Comment