Wednesday, September 21, 2011

9/21 Forex

See my new trading rules, posted over the weekend.

AUD/CAD has bounced off the lower end of its range for the second time since Aug. 9 and is now rising. The low point is somewhere between C$1.0047 and C$1.0029, with an upper boundary, touched twice already, of $1.0517-$1.0531.

sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10

Also starting new legs within a broad sideways trend: CAD/DKK, CAD/SEK, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD.

EUR/CAD, as the most liquid pair, would seem to be the logical play. But it would require going long the euro, which -- given the politics of the eurozone these days -- makes me nervous, And EUR/CAD has a level of resistance in the middle of the range that has paused the price twice in the past six days.

sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10

The EUR/CAD range runs from C$1.4312-C$1.4378 down to C$1.3397-C$1.3408, with the near resistance at C$1.3679-$C$1.3647, or in that neighborhood.

USD/CAD has a much narrower range that is less well defined. It is also legging, sort of, and began the most recent leg on Sept. 16. It's too muddy for me to consider playing.


  • phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
  • trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for neither.
  • adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
  • 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

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