Wednesday, September 28, 2011

9/29 Almanac

On Thursday, Sept. 29: Gross domestic product .

There are 23 trading days before the October options expire, 51 the November, 79 the December and 114 the January.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 2.0% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 3.0% in a net move down of 2.2%.

The day's extremes: Open $117.78, high $118.49, low $114.97, close $115.15.

SPY closed below the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $113.30-$116.82.

In total, 2.9 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 10% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 1.61%, one basis point higher than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

The Commerce Department makes a third and final try at the 2nd quarter gross domestic product figures, and Labor will report on weekly jobless claims. Both releases will be at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Pending homes -- contracted but not closed -- will be reported at 10 a.m.

All three reports are potential market-movers.

Also out, corporate profits at 8:30 a.m., Bloomberg consumer comfort at 9:45 a.m., natural gas at 10:30 a.m., farm prices at 3 p.m., and two weeklies from the Fed -- the balance sheet and money supply -- at 4:30 p.m.

Treasury auctions 7-year notes at 1 p.m.

Two Fedsters are schedule to speak, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Charles Plosser and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren.

Plosser, from his seat on the Federal Open Market Committee, has dissented, beginning in August, in votes on lowering long-term interest rates. Before taking office under President George W. Bush, he co-chaired the Shadow Open Market Committee, which second-guessed the Fed’s monetary policy. He has had institutional ties to Chase Manhattan Bank, Eastman Kodak Co., Wyatt Co., ViaHealth Inc., RGS Energy Group Inc. and Chase Manhattan Bank, all in consulting or advisory capacities.

Bottom line from all of that: Plosser could conceivably commit news.

Rosengren doesn’t have a seat on the monetary policy committee so while no doubt a fascinating speaker, is less relevant to traders. He took office under President George W. Bush and came up through the Fed system as a research economist. He has served as an advisor on Japanese banking.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade October vertical, diagonal, butterfly and calendar spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as January or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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