Wednesday, September 28, 2011

DUK Watch

Duke Energy Holdings Corp. (DUK) has peeked above the 20-day Donchian price channel as it resumes a rise that began on Aug. 9. So far DUK has traversed 19%.

sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10

The question for me, as I think of opening a position, is whether the move has any staying power. DUK has recorded higher highs and higher lows four days running since completing a 3.8%, two-day correction. On the other hand, after setting a higher high today, it has pulled back to the price channel boundary -- a sign the breakout maybe a head fake.

A close above the price channel would be an entry signal for me. Otherwise, I'll wait and see what Thursday's open looks like.

DUK has a moderately OK return on equity, at 8.5%, and carries a fair amount of debt, with a debt/equity ratio of 0.78.

A range rating of 1.6% is not exactly moribund, but also not the mark of a real zipper mover.

But zippy or not, it's the trend that counts. DUK has already set a higher high today, at $20.15. If it closes above $19.85, thereby maintaining a higher low, then it will be in a very near term uptrend, and if it closes above the price channel, whose boundary is now at $19.96, then that would give added wait to entry.


  • phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
  • trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for neither.
  • adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
  • 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

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