Thursday, September 29, 2011

MOS Watch

The Mosaic Co. (MOS) has set the third in a series of moderately lower lows since Aug. 1. It's not a triangle of any sort, but rather a sloppy sort of downward channel with a sticky top.

It sort looks like a sideways trend, but it's more of a sidewinder wannabe.

sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10

The top of the price oscillations has remained steady at around $74 for two touches since July 22. The broader downtrend began Feb. 14, and the price has, since then, fallen by 41%.

Today's decline came after the earnings were announced, a dime below the estimated, and the price has pulled back sharply from the low, although it remains down for the day.

For my account, I'm looking at MOS as a bear trend I can latch on to and ride for awhile. But I'm uninterested as long as the lower lows aren't accompanied by lower highs.

A lower low set Monday was followed by a one-day gap up, and then two days of decline to the present new lower low.

A price move above Tuesday's high, $61.90, would suggest that the top of the formation is still sticky, and I would lose interest entirely. A failure to attain $61.90, followed by a new lower low, below today's $52.61, would tell me that there's a real downtrend developing, rather than a wannabe.


  • phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
  • trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for neither.
  • adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
  • 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

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