Wednesday, September 28, 2011

9/28 Forex

On the daily chart, these major pairs are in the early stages of a bounce off the 20-day Donchian channel boundary back into the interior: AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/NOK, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and USD/NOK. Moving in lockstep.

(By major, I mean the 12 most liquid currencies, plus USD/NOK and EUR/NOK.)

There is little of note on the daily charts tracking the currency pairs I follow. Many have bumped against the 20-day Donchian price channel boundary and are pulling back.

On the hourly charts,

EUR/USD has broken twice above a sideways trend in force since 4 p.m. Eastern on Sept. 21, but the first time it pulled back and is in the process of doing so a second time. I’ve set my breakout levels at US$1.3601 and US$1.3383.

AUD/USD, the same. The sideways trend began at 5 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 22. The channel boundaries are US$0.9904 and US$0.9628.

GBP/USD has paused at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, bounding around on either side for 23 hours, so far.

NZD/USD remains paused for a 31st hour at the 38.2% Fib level in an upside reversal from a Sept. 20 to Sept. 25 decline.

What I Track

For the daily charts, I track the 54 currency pairs requiring 20% margin under U.S. government regulations. For the hourlies, I track the dozen most important pairs, with two NOK pairs added in, because they are recently hot.


  • phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
  • trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for neither.
  • adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
  • 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.


  1. Hi,

    Just reading through your pages now (we sure do think alike). Are you tracking these currencies manually on the chart or have you found some scanner to let you know which currencies are you breakout mode? Thanks

  2. Manually. See my reply to your comment on Smackdown ( for a description of my procedur