9/6 Forex

There are 20 price-channel breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow, eight with strong trends.

I found these parabolic sar phase changes:

… to the bull side: AUD/NZD, USD/HKD, USD/ILS, USD/INR, USD/JPY, USD/PLN and USD/TRY

… to the bear side: NZD/JPY, NZD/ZAR, PLN/CZK, SGD/HKD and USD/THB

In today’s analysis, I've excluded breakouts and parabolic sar changes involving the Swiss franc. The Swiss government on Monday pegged the EUR/CHF pair at SF1.20. Other pairs involving the franc adjusted. Any signals triggered by the change are the new starting point, not the beginning of an ongoing move. Future trading could force EUR/CHF off the peg, and in that case I would report the resulting phase changes.

Private Trader returns to its full schedule of postings today.

Strong-Trend Breakouts

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
CAD/NOK+		33	sep6	C$5.4345	$5.5048	0.0703	1.3%
DKK/HUF		30	sep5	Ft37.307	Ft36.899	0.408	1.1%
DKK/PLN		48	sep6	zł0.5675	zł0.5620	0.0055	1.0%
EUR/HUF		31	sep5	Ft261.62	Ft271.00	3.05	1.2%
EUR/PLN		47	sep6	zł4.2248	zł4.1840	0.0408	1.0%
PLN/JPY		27	sep6	¥25.477	¥25.535	0.058	0.2%
USD/ILS		29	sep5	₪3.6283	₪3.5904	0.0379	1.0%
USD/PLN		27	sep5	zł2.9866	zł2.9345	0.0521	1.7%

Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Weak-Trend Breakouts

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
CZK/JPY		15	sep5	¥4.4500	¥4.5185	0.0685	1.5%
DKK/CZK		19	sep5	Kč3.2861	Kč3.2656	0.0205	0.6%
DKK/JPY		15	sep6	¥14.4960	¥14.6777	0.1817	1.3%
DKK/SGD		19	sep5	S$0.2283	S$0.2303	0.0020	0.9%
DKK/THB		19	sep5	฿5.630	฿5.690	0.060	1.1%
EUR/JPY+		15	sep6	¥108.016	¥109.424	1.408	1.3%
EUR/NOK+		23	sep6	Nkr7.6310	Nkr7.7031	0.0721	0.9%
EUR/SGD		19	sep5	S$1.7035	S$1.7182	0.0147	0.9%
EUR/THB		18	sep6	฿41.97	฿42.44	0.47	1.1%
GBP/SGD		16	sep5	S$1.9403	S$1.9566	0.0163	0.8%
NOK/DKK+		24	sep6	Dkr0.9752	Dkr0.9657	0.0095	1.0%
NOK/SEK+		22	sep6	Skr1.1905	Skr1.1803	0.0102	0.9%

Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Key

• phase: Green for a bull-phase breakout, red for a bear phase.
• adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
• bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
• blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
• bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
• atr: The 14-day average true range, in the same currency as the price.
• atr%: The average true range as a percentage of the breakout level, an indicator of volatility that is comparable for all potential trades.

About channel analysis Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules. The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.