9/1 Almanac

On Wednesday, Sept. 1: Manufacturing index.

There are 17 days before the September options expire, 45 the October and 80 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

VIX Watch

The Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) bull phase that showed this morning on the VIX -- the so-called "fear index" -- has melted away, something the pps has a tendency to do in a wishy-washy market.

So the indicator remains in bear phase, which suggests a tendency for the S&P 500 to rise near-term.

The signals are quite mixed -- bearish on the pps and parabolic sar, bullish on the fast stochastic and macd. The price is above the 20-day moving average.

NLY Update

The Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) bull phase on Annaly Capital Management (NLY), which I discussed this morning, has disappeared.

The phenomenon is called "ghosting", and it means the conditions that produced the morning signal changed during the day, invalidating the signal.

The pps is particularly prone to this this (so is the fast stochastic and, to a lesser extent, the macd).

The price remains just below the 20-day moving average. It moved above slightly before retreating.

The fast stochastic continues to push upward through neutrality, and the macd is moving toward the zero line. So some bullish elements remain in place. I'll continue to track NLY to see whether it indeed moves to a persistent bull phase or plays Cheshire Cat instead.

MO Watch

So, a CEO walks into a traders bar and says, "OK, guys, I've got a tip for you. You heard it here first. I've raised my dividend twice this year. I'm gonna do it again." The bar patrons all slam down their drinks and shout, "Sell! Sell! Sell!"

It makes no sense. And it's not even funny. But that's what's happening to the tobacco+otherstuff company Altria Group Inc. (MO), whose dividend was raised a few days back and which today has fallen through the 20-day moving average with bear signs across the board.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
MO $22.40

NLY Watch

Real-estate investment trust Annaly Capital Management (NLY) has moved to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps). The dividend play has a current yield of 15.58%, paid in quarterly installments.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
$17.36

8/31 Forex

• U.S. dollar whipsaws back to bull phase against the Canadian loonie (USD/CAD).

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.27		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥84.53		¥85.15 aug24	¥88.41	¥83.96
GBP/USD US$1.54		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥107.53		¥107.37 aug17	¥115.86	¥104.43
USD/CAD C$1.06		C$1.06 aug31	C$1.08	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$13.17		M$12.70 aug20	M$13.37	M$12.24

8/31 Morningline

• S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 negate bull signals on the fast stochastic; turn back to the bear (SPY, QQQQ).
• Fear index shows bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), but it's ghosting (VIX).
• Treasury long-term bonds whipsaw back into bull phase on the pps (TLT).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

The major stock/bond indicators are all showing signs of resurgent downwardness for stock prices and bond yields. Bearishness in stocks (SPY, QQQQ) means bonds (TLT) become more attractive, so traders bid up bond prices, reducing their yields. Meanwhile, the so-called "fear index" (VIX) -- volatility of the S&P 500 -- shows bullishness as traders turn bearish on stocks.

It's all typical behavior. The VIX, however, is ghosting -- the pps signal is appearing and disappearing -- suggesting the bear trend in stocks is not all that strong.

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

8/31 Almanac

On Tuesday, Aug. 31: Fed minutes, consumer confidence, metro-area home prices.

There are 18 days before the September options expire, 46 the October and 81 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

8/30 Forex

• Euro moves to bull phase against the yen (EUR/JPY).
• U.S. dollar turns bearish against Canadian loonie (USD/CAD).

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.27		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥84.65		¥85.15 aug24	¥88.41	¥83.96
GBP/USD US$1.55		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥107.41		¥107.37 aug17	¥115.86	¥104.43
USD/CAD C$1.06		C$1.05 aug27	C$1.06	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$13.15		M$12.70 aug20	M$13.37	M$12.24

8/30 Morningline

OK. I have my charts back, although they're slow as molasses on a February day in Wasilla, Alaska.

• Fear index moves to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), parabolic sar; to bull phase on the fast stochastic (VIX).
• Treasury long-term bonds turn bearish on two major signals (TLT).
• High-yield corporate debt remains mixed on the pps and psar (JNK).
• Crude oil moves to bull phase on the pps, psar (EEM).
• No new signals on the dollar-yen currency pair despite Bank of Japan emergency action to devalue the yen (USD/JPY).

Many of the signal changes happened in afternoon trading on Friday. The Bank of Japan met to loosen constraints on economic growth and therefore to weaken the yen, improving the position of Japanese exports to the United States and in other dollar-denominated transactions. Says the Market, "No big."

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

Chart Problems

I'm having major problems with the ThinkOrSwim platform that I use for my technical analysis. The Morningline and Forex reports will be delayed.

8/30 Almanac

On Monday, Aug. 30: Income and outlays.

There are 19 days before the September options expire, 47 the October and 82 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

SWKS Watch

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) makes the electronic stuff that other companies use to make their consumer stuff. It moved to bull phase across the board today with a 6.9% price rise intraday and no visible news.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SWKS $18.36

LVS Watch

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) broke thorugh the 20-day moving averge to the upside on renewed strength of a bull trend on the fast stochastic. The less volatile indicators remain in bear phase.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
LVS $29.15

EBAY Watch

The online auction house eBay Inc. (EBAY) has moved to bear phase on the parabolic sar, leaving only one major signal still in bull phase. The price remains above the 20-day moving average but below the 200-day ma.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
EBAY $22.76

8/27 Forex

• Euro rising sharply against the yen but the signal remains in bear phase (EUR/JPY).
• The dollar also rises (USD/JPY).
• Bernanke speech inspired no new signals against the currency pairs I follow.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.55		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥84.96		¥85.15 aug24	¥88.41	¥83.96
GBP/USD US$1.55		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥108.12		¥113.50 aug10	¥115.86	¥108.62
USD/CAD C$1.06		C$1.04 aug20	C$1.06	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$13.02		M$12.70 aug20	M$13.00	M$12.24

8/27 Morningline

• Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech roils the market, and then they unroil, sort of.
• Treasury long-term bonds drop sharply as the speech is released (TLT).
• The fear index drops sharply (VIX). No fear here!
• High-yield corporate debt slips back into fast stochastic bull phase (JNK).
• Dollar shows a macd bull signal against the yen, but it's so slight as to be untrustworthy (USD/JPY).
• Emerging markets show early bull signs (EEM).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

It always happens. An event due to happen. CNBC gets excited. The events happens. The markets go crazy for 15 minutes. And then, things quieten about where they were before. Nothing really happened.

TLT is trading more than 1.5% below Thursday's close. Falling Treasury bonds mean traders expect higher yields going forward. Benanke said he would step up efforts to revive the economy -- read the NYTimes report -- which means higher interest rates, and so lower bond prices make sense.

The VIX is trading more than 3% below Thursday's close. No one expects the markets to jump up and shout hallelujah as the Fed stimulates the economy, but equities are less likely to show volatility along with a collapsing economy. Higher VIX, make sense.

JNK moved to bull phase on the fast stochasistic, having been in bear territory on the technicals since Aug. 6. Fed stimulus of the economy means healthier companies less likely to default on their junk bonds. Higher prices for high-yield corproate debt? Makes sense.

Rational markets. You betcha!

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

Morninline, Forex Note

I'll post the Morningline and Forex after the volatility surrounding Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, has subsided.

8/27 Almanac

On Friday, Aug. 27: Gross domestic product.

There are 22 days before the September options expire, 50 the October and 85 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

EBAY Watch

The online auction company eBay Inc. (EBAY) has moved to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), buttressing an earlier short-term signal. The pps was accompanied by a 3% (so far) intraday slide.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
EBAY $22.79

XRX Watch

Xerox Corp. (XRX) is proving to be the little engine that couldn't, at least when it comes to the fast stochastic. The volatile signal moved to bull phase on Wednesday, before falling back into bear phase today.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
XRX $8.50

The important Fibonacci retracement leel the last three days has been the 78.6%, at $8.49. A bump above the next higher, 61.8% level, at $8.81, would mean a return to the levels before Tuesday's downward gap.

XRX first moved to bear phase on the slow signals (parabolic sar, Persons' Proprietary Signal, macd) on Aug. 11.

NLY Watch

High-yield real estate investment trust Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) has paused to ponder Wednesday's downward gap, and the fast stochastic has pulled up from the 20-line without crossing out of neutrality.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
NLY $17.05

At $17.05 NLY remains well above the $16.75 lower bound of the months-long range identified in Wednesday's discussion.

The stock goes ex-dividend in late September, and the current annual yield is a very attractive 15.93%.

MSFT Watch

Oops! Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) head-faked on a fast stochastic bull signal, which is now nullfied.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
$23.87

I wrote on Wednesday, "I think it's playable, but there are better plays out there." Turns out, it was playable only for daytraders.

MSFT goes off the watchlist. Bye!

8/26 Forex

No new signals on the forex Person's charts this morning. I blame the French. They all go on vacation in August, and clearly, the world's forex traders are following their lead. That's globalization!

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.27		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥84.49		¥85.15 aug24	¥88.41	¥83.96
GBP/USD US$1.56		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥107.54		¥113.50 aug10	¥115.86	¥108.62
USD/CAD C$1.06		C$1.04 aug20	C$1.06	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$12.98		M$12.70 aug20	M$13.00	M$12.24

8/26 Morningline

• S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 back in bull phase on the fast stochastic (SPY, QQQQ).
• A wishy-washy fear index (VIX).
• Treasury long-term bonds move to bear phase on the fast stochastic (TLT).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

SPY and QQQQ broke into bull phase on the fast stochastic during Wednesday's late-day price recovery. The less volatile indicators -- the parabolic sar, macd and Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) -- remain in bear phase.

8/26 Almanac

On Thursday, Aug. 26: Jobless claims.

There are 23 days before the September options expire, 51 the October and 86 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

MSFT Watch

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is showing bull phase on the fast stochastic, one of the most volatile of indicators. If the signal holds true, then the stock is rady for another wave up in the undulating decline that has marked its course since June.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
MSFT $24.14

NLY Watch

The high-yield real-estate investment trust Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) has been hammered today after an analyst downgrade that blamed the underperformance of mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The bad news: The price is down more than 2.7%. The good news: The dividend yield is way up. So it goes with high-yielding things. It's always a good news bad news sort of day.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
NLY $16.86

8/25 Forex

No new Person's Proprietary Signal phase shifts on the currency pairs I follow.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.27		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥84.21		¥85.15 aug24	¥88.41	¥83.96
GBP/USD US$1.54		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥106.42		¥113.50 aug10	¥115.86	¥108.62
USD/CAD C$1.07		C$1.04 aug20	C$1.06	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$13.09		M$12.70 aug20	M$13.00	M$12.24

8/25 Morningline

• Gold in a major whipsaw (GLD).
• Euro gets a bull signal (barely) against the dollar (EUR/USD).
• Dollar shows a bull signal against the yen (USD/JPY).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

8/25 Almanac

On Wednesday, Aug. 25: Durable goods.

There are 24 days before the September options expire, 52 the October and 87 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

EBAY Watch

The online auction venue eBay Inc. (EBAY) has moved to bear phase on the fast stochastic after a bull run that began in mid-July.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
EBAY $22.90

XRX Watch

On Aug. 11 I wrote about Xerox (XRX) as a bear play. Today it paid bears off nicely with a downward gap.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
XRX $8.43

T Watch

Telcom company AT&T (T) is showing bull phase on the fast stochastic with a rise that has covered 2,1% intraday. The less volatile signals remain in bear phase.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
T $26.70

8/24 Morningline

• S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 down sharply after Realtors report a 27.2% drop in existing home sales (SPY, QQQQ).
• Home sales at a 15-year low.
• Treasury long-term bonds gap sharply upward (TLT).
• High-yield corporate debt shows bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) (JNK).
• Gold negates fast stochastic bear signal, back in bull phase (GLD).
• Euro, trading against the dollar, shows fast stochastic bull phase (EUR/USD).
• Dollar, trading against the yen, turns bearish across the board (USD/JPY).
• Emerging markets negates bull signal on the fast stochast (EEM).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

A government program giving tax breaks to homebuyers expired April 30. The 27.2% decline was nearly double economists' expectations.

SPY is trading 1.4% below Friday's close, and QQQQ is down 1.7%. TLT is up 1.4% from Friday.
Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

8/24 Forex

• USD/JPY shows bear signal on slide.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.26		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥83.65		¥85.15 aug24	¥88.41	¥83.96
GBP/USD US$1.54		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥105.64		¥113.50 aug10	¥115.86	¥108.62
USD/CAD C$1.06		C$1.04 aug20	C$1.06	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$12.99		M$12.70 aug20	M$13.00	M$12.24

Morningline Note

I'll be filing the Morngline after the existing home sales report is released at 10 a.m., as it appears likely to be market-mover.

8/24 Almanac

On Tuesday, Aug. 24: Existing home sales.

There are 25 days before the September options expire, 53 the October and 88 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

8/23 Forex

No new signals on the forex pairs I follow.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.27		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥85.56		¥85.44 aug19	¥88.41	¥83.96
GBP/USD US$1.55		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥108.49		¥113.50 aug10	¥115.86	¥108.62
USD/CAD C$1.05		C$1.04 aug20	C$1.06	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$12.78		M$12.70 aug20	M$13.00	M$12.24

8/23 Morningline

• S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 move to bull phase on the fast stochastic (SPY, QQQQ).
• Treasury long-term bonds enter bear phase on the fast stochastic (TLT).
• High-yield corporate debt turns bullish on the parabolic sar (JNK).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

The parabolic sar bull signal on JNK follows Friday's move to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal.

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

8/23 Almanac

On Monday, Aug. 23: No econ reports. Major reports on Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday.

There are 26 days before the September options expire, 54 the October and 89 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

LCC Watch

US Airways Group Inc. (LCC) has resumed its downward swing after a two-day bull whipsaw. A fast stochastic bull signal fell short of the 80-line and has dropped back below the 20-line, returning the stock to bear phase.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
LCC $8.95

8/20 Forex

• The Empire strikes back.
• Dollar goes to bull phase against the loonie, peso. (USD/CAD, USD/MXN).
• Euro declines as much as 1.2% against the dollar (EUR/USD).

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.27		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥85.56		¥85.44 aug19	¥88.41	¥83.96
GBP/USD US$1.55		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥108.49		¥113.50 aug10	¥115.86	¥108.62
USD/CAD C$1.05		C$1.04 aug20	C$1.06	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$12.78		M$12.70 aug20	M$13.00	M$12.24

8/20 Morningline

• S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 fast stochastic bull phase negated (SPY, QQQQ).
• Gold moves to bear phase on the fast stochastic, Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) (GLD).
• Emerging markets show bear phase on the pps (EEM).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

8/20 Almanac

On Friday, Aug. 20: No econ reports whatsoever. I'm guessing, molasses slow in the markets.

This is the last trading day for August options. There are 29 days before the September options expire, 57 the October and 92 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

USD/JPY Watch

The Person's Proprietary Signal bull phase that showed this morning on the USD/JPY currency pair, has ghosting away, disappearing like the spring cherry blossom in Ueno Park, speaking as always to the impermanence of all things.

Also, to the strangeness (sometimes) of Person's Proprietary Signal.

The bull phase is unsupported by any price movement this week. I don't take it too seriously from a tech analysis standpoint. Fundamentally, bull phase is what is good with the Japanese economy: A rising dollar means a falling yen, and that means Japan's exports are more attractive. I'll bet the Bank of Japan is real eager to engineer such an outcome.

My earlier write-up was in the Forex report, which also took Reuters to task for mis-stating which currency was declining.

They've corrected their error. Glad you're paying attention, Reuters!

SOLR Watch

Solar power tech company GT Solar International Inc. (SOLR) has moved to bear phase on all signals with a 5.6% drop intraday. The company was downgraded two days ago, but since then it has been news free.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SOLR $7.51

8/19 Forex

• USD/JPY shows bear phase; blasts through lower pivot.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.29		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥84.92		¥85.44 aug19	¥88.41	¥83.96
GBP/USD US$1.56		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥109.34		¥113.50 aug10	¥115.86	¥108.62
USD/CAD C$1.04		C$1.04 aug17	C$1.06	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$12.68		M$12.66 aug17	M$13.00	M$12.24

8/19 Morningline

• S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 bull signals bull signals on the fast stochastic are close to negation (SPY, QQQQ0.
• Fear index: Same thing, but in reverse; bear signal nears negation.
• Dollar moves to bear phase against the yen (USD/JPY).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

A no-drama morning, 40 minutes to trading. The fast stochastic on the major stock market indicators -- SPY, QQQQ -- moved to bull phase several days ago but have reversed course and pulled back near or in the oversold zone (below the 20-line). The latter case -- below 20 -- negates the prior bull signal. At this point they're dipping below and then retreating above the 20-line. In the tables I've coded them as in the neutral zone.

The VIX is doing the same dance on the fast stochastic, except it's a bull signal that's approaching negation.

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

8/19 Almanac

On Thursday, Aug. 19: Jobless claims, leading indicators.

There are 2 days before the August options expire, 30 the September and 58 the October.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

JNK Watch

The exchange traded fund that tracks high-yield corporate debt (JNK) is showing bull signals, suggesting a resumption of the uptrend that has carried the price up 9.7% from May 21 to July 27. The ensuing correction has been shallow and stayed well above prior lows, meaning the uptrend remains in force.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
$39.13

FNMA Watch

Will the last trader holding Fannie Mae please turn out the lights?

The chart on Fannie (FNMA) is looking like a game of musical chairs, as traders scramble to get out in order to not be left standing.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
FNMA $0.33

Hindenburg Omen

The markets last Thursday showed something called the Hindenburg Omen, supposedly a signal that a substantial crash in night.

Wikipedia has a full explainer, as does Investopedia. The Omen kicks in if the markets simultaneously show a peak for new annual highs and and lows.

But briefly, the Hindenburg Omen kicks in if:

• New annual highs and lows on the NYSE are both greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
• The 10-week moving average on the exchange is rising.
• The McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
• The number of new annual highs is no more than twice the lows (although lows can be more than double the highs -- go figure!.

That's it. Simple as Doc's device for feeding Einstein in Back to the Future.

Jim Cramer certainly isn't convinced -- but the man hates technical analysis, poor soul.

In this case, however, I must take my stand with Jim: The Hindenburg Omen isn't anything I would hang my portfolio on. I'm not a fan of World Destroying Apocalyptic Market Analysis.

The omen smells like a Tinkerbell signal to me: If everyone believes, then it will happen.

If a crash is about to happen, price patterns and my other signals (parabolic sar, macd, fast stochastic) will give warning of a trend change. That's plenty for my work. 

8/18 Forex

• No new signals.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.29		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥85.35		¥85.915 aug13	¥88.41	¥85.20
GBP/USD US$1.56		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥109.67		¥113.50 aug10	¥115.86	¥108.62
USD/CAD C$1.03		C$1.04 aug17	C$1.06	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$12.62		M$12.66 aug17	M$13.00	M$12.24

8/18 Morningline

• Treasury long-term bonds continue price rise (TLT).
• High-yield corporate debt shows bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), but it is ghosting (JNK).
• Crude oil gaps down (USO).
• A change in how the fast stochastic is presented on the Private Trader charts.

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

TLT bumped up to its highest point since April 2009. Except for six months in 2009, it is TLT's highest point ever. JNK's bull signal on the pps is disappearing and reappearing, and may not exist a the end of the trading day, when all daily chart signals become "official".

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

8/18 Almanac

On Wednesday, Aug. 18: Slim pickin's. Petroleum inventory and mortgage bankers.

There are 3 days before the August options expire, 31 the September and 59 the October.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

F (Ford) Watch

Ford Motor Co. (F) has moved into bull phase on the fast stochastic and is trading 2.6% above Monday's close with an hour left for trading.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
F $12.25

XRX Update

Xerox Corp. (XRX) has moved to bull phase on the ever volatile fast stochastic. For people who like to tortoise into their trades and jackrabbit out, this is the get out signal.

On Aug. 11 I wrote: "I like XRX as a directional bear play, either by shorting the stock or buying puts. The swings have had a velocity measured in weeks rather than months..."

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
XRX $9.19

8/17 Forex

• Dollar drops sharply on bear signal against loonie, peso (USD/CAD, USD/MXN).
• There goes that Cancun vacation. Bummer!

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.29		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥85.48		¥85.915 aug13	¥88.41	¥85.20
GBP/USD US$1.56		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥109.94		¥113.50 aug10	¥115.86	¥108.62
USD/CAD C$1.03		C$1.04 aug17	C$1.06	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$12.61		M$12.66 aug17	M$13.00	M$12.24

8/17 Morningline

• Fear index shows bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) (VIX).
• Emerging markets turn bullish on the pps (EEM).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

The fear index (the VIX) tracks the volatility of the S&P 500. The lore of the markets is when the VIX goes down, the S&P 500 goes up, and vice versa.

The pps bull signal stands in bear phase with the fast stochastic, which gave its signal on Aug. 13.

The preceding, 4-day bull phase on the pps produced a 1% gain in price, so it was not a good signal. Part of the Problem is the VIX, a volatility indicator, is itself not very volatile these days, and that means false signals and whipsaws.

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

8/17 Almanac

On Tuesday, Aug. 17: Housing starts, producer prices, industrial production.

There are 4 days before the August options expire, 32 the September and 60 the October.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

NLY Watch

Dividend play Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) has whipsawed into bear phase on a major signal after three days on the bull side of the fence. Hey, I own this baby. What, me worry?

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
NLY $17.31

8/16 Forex

• USD/JPY plummets although bull phase remains in place.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.28		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥85.29		¥85.915 aug13	¥88.41	¥85.20
GBP/USD US$1.57		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥109.54		¥113.50 aug10	¥115.86	¥108.62
USD/CAD C$1.04		C$1.03 aug10	C$1.06	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$12.64		M$12.56 aug6	M$13.00	M$12.24

8/16 Morningline

• Treasury long-term bonds gap up as returns fall to levels not seen since the spring of 2009 (TLT).
• Low interest? No interest! Dollar slides against the yen after Friday's bull signal (USD/JPY).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

TLT opened 2.5% above Friday's close, setting a new high on the three-month chart.

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators. Twenty-year bond yields, which move inversely to the price, fell to as low as 3.78%, the lowest level since April 2009.

Who knows why, really. The Chinese are said to be selling Treasuries, which theoretically ought to lower the price. However, with the recovery look very shaky, I suspect that expectations of future rate increases are being yanked out of the pricing.

8/16 Almanac

On Monday, Aug. 16: International capital, home builders on housing market.

There are 5 days before the August options expire, 33 the September and 61 the October.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

8/13 Forex Update

This morning USD/JPY was showing bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps). At the time, it was ghosting, fading out and in as the pps is prone to do in its more whimsical moments.

The signal appears to have stabilize as a valid switch to bull phase.

See this morning's forex report for the pivots and assessment of the preceding bear phase.

Quirky Friday

There is really little to like in this market. Huge movers I side, most of what I'm seeing is either price moves counter to recent phase changes (prices up after bear signals) or signal whipsaws.

Either way, it's not a day I want to trade, especially with the weekend ahead.

RAD Watch

Four days ago I wrote about Rite Aid Corp.(RAD) showing bull signals on a volume spike.

Since then the volume has stairstepped down, and so has the price. The stock has moved to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) and the fast stochastic, the third phase switch in seven days.

Clearly a stock that doesn't know its own mind. (Do stocks have minds? Free will? A liking for chocolate fudge?)

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
RAD $0.95

8/13 Forex

• Dollar shows bull phase against the yen, but the signal is ghosting.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.28		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥85.03		¥85.915 aug13	¥88.41	¥85.20
GBP/USD US$1.56		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥109.69		¥113.50 aug10	¥115.86	¥108.62
USD/CAD C$1.04		C$1.03 aug10	C$1.06	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$12.71		M$12.56 aug6	M$13.00	M$12.24

8/13 Morningline

• Cash dollars are losing value at an annualized rate of 3.5%.
• High-yield corporate debt moves to bull phase on the fast stochastic (JNK).
• Dollar moves to parabolic sar, macd bull phase against the yen. but it's ghosting (USD/JPY).
• Emerging markets show bull phase on the fast stochastic (EEM).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

8/13 Almanac

On Friday, Aug. 13: Consumer prices, retail sales.

There are 8 days before the August options expire, 36 the September and 64 the October.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

KO Watch

The Coca-Cola Co. (KO) is on a slide with signals. Concern that the downturn in China will cause Chinese people to drink fewer Cokes? Who knows? The main point of interest in this chart is that KO has a significant ways to go before enountering major support.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
KO $55.65