| trend | adx | psar | pps | macd | macd trend | sto | sto trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FNM $1.22 |
The close was $1.22, and the trendline is setting on $1.23. It's a 0.8% breakdown, but since the minimum fluctuation for FNM is 1¢, I think the magnitude can be disregarded. It could just as well be a 0.5% breakdown, rounded up.
The question of whether the triangle has been broken will be answered on Monday. A further decline below the trendline will cast the entire pattern into doubt.
A symmetrical triange is a continuation pattern. FNM was in an upswing when the triangle began forming. The base of the triangle was 26¢ wide, set across two days. The apex is at about $1.27, implying a rise to around $1.53 when (if) the price breaks out to the upside.
The symmetrical triangle is like any price pattern: It is a perfect predictor of the future, except when it's not.
I consider price patterns to be Tinkerbell indicators: Things that exist only because people believe in them.
The triangle is unusual in one respect. The first leg of the base was set on a sharp upswing. The second leg, the next day, opened in a large upward gap, and then retraced in a sharp down move.
Earnings will be announced after market on Thursday.
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Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic
About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
- trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
- adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
- psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
- sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.
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