Tuesday, May 4, 2010

5/4 Morningline: Other Indicators

Most interesting thing among the other indicators is the show, 2.6% decline in USO, which tracks crude oil. The dollar is down against the euro, and market writers are scapegoating it for today's price declines in stocks and bonds.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
JNK $39.65
GLD $116.06
USO $40.37
EEM $42.34
EUR/USD $1.3052
USD/JPY ¥94.59
At 10:17 a.m. Eastern

That's in line with the idea that a euro-zone crisis, like the Greek debt, will strengthen the dollar, which the currency crude oil is denominated in. Stronger dollar - cheaper oil - lower interest rates. So far, so consistent.

But those elements should mainly rebound to the favor of stocks, one would think, and stocks are down. It could be that traders are expecting a stronger dollar to force the fed to raise interest rates, which is bad for stocks. Or it could be that traders are focusing on the damage a stronger dollar causes to importers.

It's also notable that high-yield corporate debt (JNK) has gapped down and is showing a new parabolic sar bear signal. JNK's value mainly depends upon traders' assessment of how likely companies are to default on their loans.

The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation: Using Technical Analysis and ETFs to Trade the Markets

Martin Pring's detailed deconstruction of the economic cycle: What sorts stocks to look for at each stage of the recovery. A masterful analysis.


Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
EUR/USD - euro/dollar currency pair
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
SPY - blue-chip stocks
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USD/JPY - dollar/yen currency pair
USO - crude oil
VIX - fear index


Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


New to Private Trader? Check out the Reader's Guide.

New to private trading? Here's a look at How to Become a Private Trader.

No comments:

Post a Comment