Saturday, February 5, 2011

Slow Trading: Watchlist

As it is early in the month, the February changes are quite preliminary and are liable to change as the month moves forward.
  • ORCL to bull phase, ending six months in neutrality.
  • ABT bear phase ends eight month fall through neutrality.
  • China to bull phase after staying neutral for 10 (FXI).
  • Emerging markets fund returns to bull phase (EWO).

Watchlist analysis from the monthly charts. The listings have been completely revised in order to overlap the price channel analysis, done separately on the daily charts.

See the listings key near the end of this posting for an explanation of the listings.

Seen the Earnings Calendar on the menu bar for the latest on when stocks on the Watchlist will announce.

My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

Bull plays
phase pfeppstrend
CHRW
CTSH
CVX
DECK
ENTR
GE*
GOOG*
GRMN
MCO*
MU*
ORCL
PAYX*
SO
VAR
WMT
XLE*
XLP*
XLU
XOM

Bear plays
phase pfeppstrend
ABT
AMR
CREE
DELL
GPS
JNJ
M
MNKD
MO
T

Diversification plays
phase pfeppstrend
EPI
EWZ
FXI
RSX
VWO

Wounded birds
phase pfeppstrend
AROW
FTR
MVO
NLY

Zombies
phase pfeppstrend
AOD*
FNMA*
Note that FNMA has not been traded long enough for use of the polarized fractal efficiency line on a monthly chart.

 
Listings Key

Bull Plays
symwhy care?
CHRWlegacy earns
CTSHlegacy earns
CVXdiv 3.3%
DECKlegacy earns
ENTRlegacy earns
GEtransnat, price channel
GOOGholding
GRMNlegacy earns
MCOcovered call base
MUprice channel, holding
ORCLprice channel
PAYXdiv 3.9%
SBUXholding (seeking exit)
SOdiv 4.8%
VARholding
WMTprice channel
XLEsector rotation
XLPsector rotation
XLUprice channel
XOMlegacy earns

Bear Plays
All bear plays appear because of price channel analysis.

Diversification
symunderlying
EPIIndia
EWZBrazil
FXIChina
RSXRussia
VWOGlobal

Wounded Birds
symwhy care?
AROWdiv 4.19%
FTRdiv 8.0%
MVOdiv 7.0%
NLYdiv 15.0%

Zombies
symwhy care?
AODdiv 11.3m%
FNMAcrazy penny stock speculation

About the categories:
  • Bull plays: I think these are more likely to rise than fall.
  • Bear plays: I think these are more likely to fall than rise.
  • Diversification plays: These don’t closely track the U.S. markets or are based on currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
  • Wounded birds: Stocks I find fascinating but they each have an apparently fatal flaw.
  • Zombies: These are failed leftovers from what seemed to be good ideas at the time. They stalk the Watchlist like zombies, tying up resources and frightening small children.



Table Abbreviations:
  • pfe - Location of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal mode.
  • trend - Trend of the polarized fractal efficiency line.



Key to the PPS/PFE tables
columncolormeaning
phase bull phase
bear phase
pfe +100 and above
+50 to below 100
0 to below +50
below 0 to above -50
-50 to above -100
below -100
pps bull confirmation
bear confirmation
trend uptrend
no trend
downtrend


More on the PFE/PPS analysis

Read a detailed explanation of the analytical tools and how they’re used, including trading rules.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.


No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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