- Bull positions:
- AUD/JPY stopped on price decline.
- ORCL out after piercing lower 20-day channel.
- XLP out after closing below breakout level for two consecutive days after breakout -- the two-day rule.
- Bear positions:
- EWH, EWS, EWT, EWW, FTR and USD/CHF break out below the 55-day lower price-channel line.
- TLT stopped on price rise.
Bull Positions
AUD/JPY, ORCL, XLP out.
| sym | bday | blevel | stop | adx ≥40? | 2-day? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/JPY | feb7 | ¥83.666 | ¥82.211 | ||
| DELL | feb16 | $14.46 | $14.20 | ||
| EBAY | feb1 | $31.64 | $30.69 | ||
| EWJ | feb2 | $11.25 | $10.91 | ||
| JNK* | feb4 | $40.52 | $40.20 | ||
| JNPR | feb4 | $38.73 | $37.57 | ||
| ORCL | jan20 | $32.27 | $31.30 | ||
| PM | feb15 | $60.14 | $58.68 | ||
| SLV | feb17 | $30.44 | $29.53 | ||
| USO | feb23 | $39.48 | $38.30 | x | |
| WFT | feb1 | $24.11 | $23.39 | ||
| XLP | feb18 | $29.72 | $29.41 | ||
| XLY | feb7 | $38.42 | $37.74 |
Bear Positions
EWH, EWS, EWT, EWW, FTR, USD/CHF break out.
| sym | bday | blevel | stop | adx ≥40? | 2-day? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABT | jan28 | $46.03 | $47.41 | ||
| AMGN | feb18 | $52.36 | $53.51 | x | |
| AMR | jan20 | $7.54 | $7.77 | ||
| BBY | feb11 | $33.40 | $34.40 | ||
| BRCM | feb18 | $41.94 | $43.20 | ||
| EWH | feb22 | $18.33 | $18.76 | ||
| EWS | feb22 | $13.20 | $13.27 | ||
| EWT | feb22 | $14.53 | $14.97 | ||
| EWW | feb23 | $59.76 | $61.24 | x | |
| FTR | feb23 | $9.06 | $9.31 | x | |
| JNJ | jan25 | $61.25 | $62.30 | ||
| NOK | feb14 | $9.08 | $9.35 | ||
| TGT | feb18 | $53.06 | $53.62 | ||
| TLT | feb3 | $89.90 | $91.69 | ||
| USD/CHF | feb23 | SF0.92978 | SF0.93922 | x |
Here are the potential trades that I’m tracking using channel analysis.
Tracking for a bull breakout
None.
Tracking for a bear breakout
None.
Key
- bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
- blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
- stop: The current stop/loss price. Early in a bull or bear phase, this will be 5¢ below the low or above the high, respectively, on breakout day.
- adx ≥ 40?: Marked with an "x" if the ADX is at 40 or above, the levels that require an exit if the adx turns down.
- 2-day?: Marked with an "x" on the two days following breakout day. Under certain circumstances, if the price closes below the breakout level on both days, then the position must be exited.
About channel analysis
Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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