Thursday, February 24, 2011

2/24 Channels

  • Bull positions:
    • AUD/JPY stopped on price decline.
    • ORCL out after piercing lower 20-day channel.
    • XLP out after closing below breakout level for two consecutive days after breakout -- the two-day rule.
  • Bear positions:
    • EWH, EWS, EWT, EWW, FTR and USD/CHF break out below the 55-day lower price-channel line.
    • TLT stopped on price rise.

Bull Positions
symbdayblevelstopadx ≥40?2-day?
AUD/JPY feb7 ¥83.666 ¥82.211    
DELL feb16 $14.46 $14.20    
EBAY feb1 $31.64 $30.69    
EWJ feb2 $11.25 $10.91    
JNK* feb4 $40.52 $40.20    
JNPR feb4 $38.73 $37.57    
ORCL jan20 $32.27 $31.30    
PM feb15 $60.14 $58.68    
SLV feb17 $30.44 $29.53    
USO feb23 $39.48 $38.30   x
WFT feb1 $24.11 $23.39    
XLP feb18 $29.72 $29.41    
XLY feb7 $38.42 $37.74    
Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*). "X" after a symbol means it is slated for removal from the list.

Bear Positions
EWH, EWS, EWT, EWW, FTR, USD/CHF break out.
symbdayblevelstopadx ≥40?2-day?
ABT jan28 $46.03 $47.41    
AMGN feb18 $52.36 $53.51   x
AMR jan20 $7.54 $7.77    
BBY feb11 $33.40 $34.40    
BRCM feb18 $41.94 $43.20    
EWH feb22 $18.33 $18.76    
EWS feb22 $13.20 $13.27    
EWT feb22 $14.53 $14.97    
EWW feb23 $59.76 $61.24   x
FTR feb23 $9.06 $9.31   x
JNJ jan25 $61.25 $62.30    
NOK feb14 $9.08 $9.35    
TGT feb18 $53.06 $53.62    
TLT feb3 $89.90 $91.69    
USD/CHF feb23 SF0.92978 SF0.93922   x
Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*). "X" after a symbol means it is slated for removal from the list.

Here are the potential trades that I’m tracking using channel analysis.

Tracking for a bull breakout

Tracking for a bear breakout

  • bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
  • blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
  • stop: The current stop/loss price. Early in a bull or bear phase, this will be 5¢ below the low or above the high, respectively, on breakout day.
  • adx ≥ 40?: Marked with an "x" if the ADX is at 40 or above, the levels that require an exit if the adx turns down.
  • 2-day?: Marked with an "x" on the two days following breakout day. Under certain circumstances, if the price closes below the breakout level on both days, then the position must be exited.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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