Wednesday, February 9, 2011

2/10 Channels

A change: I had, rather arbitrarily, been setting the initial stop 5¢ below (bull) or above (bear) the breakthough bar low (bull) or high (bear).

Beginning with this posting I'll set the stop as one average true range unit from the extreme, or 3% from the breakthrough level, whichever is closest to the breakthrough level. This will mean fewer stops, but larger losses in the event of a stop, with 3% as the theoretical maximum loss.

  • VIX to bear phase.

Analysis is based on the market close.

Bull Positions
symbdayblevelstopadx ≥40?2-day?
AUD/JPY feb7 ¥83.666 ¥82.211    
CSCO feb3 $21.69 $21.27    
EBAY feb1 $31.64 $30.69    
EWJ feb2 $11.25 $10.91    
JNK* feb4 $40.52 $40.20    
JNPR feb4 $38.73 $37.57    
LLY feb3 $35.61 $34.92    
NFLX feb4 $218.00 $211.46    
ORCL jan20 $32.27 $31.30    
WFT feb1 $24.11 $23.39    
Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*). "X" after a symbol means it is slated for removal from the list.

Bear Positions
Added VIX.
symbdayblevelstopadx ≥40?2-day?
ABT jan28 $46.03 $47.41    
AMR jan20 $7.54 $7.77    
JNJ jan25 $61.25 $62.30    
TLT feb3 $89.90 $91.69    
VIX feb8 $15.37 $15.83   x
Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*). "X" after a symbol means it is slated for removal from the list.

Here are the potential trades that I’m tracking using channel analysis.

Nearing a bull breakout

Nearing a bear breakout

  • bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
  • blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
  • stop: The current stop/loss price. Early in a bull or bear phase, this will be 5¢ below the low or above the high, respectively, on breakout day.
  • adx ≥ 40?: Marked with an "x" if the ADX is at 40 or above, the levels that require an exit if the adx turns down.
  • 2-day?: Marked with an "x" on the two days following breakout day. Under certain circumstances, if the price closes below the breakout level on both days, then the position must be exited.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

No comments:

Post a Comment