Beginning with this posting I'll set the stop as one average true range unit from the extreme, or 3% from the breakthrough level, whichever is closest to the breakthrough level. This will mean fewer stops, but larger losses in the event of a stop, with 3% as the theoretical maximum loss.
- VIX to bear phase.
Analysis is based on the market close.
Here are the potential trades that I’m tracking using channel analysis.
Nearing a bull breakout
Nearing a bear breakout
Removed MTG, PEP, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.
- bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
- blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
- stop: The current stop/loss price. Early in a bull or bear phase, this will be 5¢ below the low or above the high, respectively, on breakout day.
- adx ≥ 40?: Marked with an "x" if the ADX is at 40 or above, the levels that require an exit if the adx turns down.
- 2-day?: Marked with an "x" on the two days following breakout day. Under certain circumstances, if the price closes below the breakout level on both days, then the position must be exited.
About channel analysis
Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.