Monday, February 28, 2011

3/1 Almanac

On Tuesday, March 1: Manufacturing index, construction spending, motor vehicle sales, Big Ben testifies.

There are 18 days before March options expire, 46 the April and 81 the May.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.6% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.7% in a net move up of 0.3%.

The day's extremes: Open $132.82, high $133.32, low $132.38, close $133.15.

SPY closed above the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $132.77-$133.71.

In total, 3.1 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchange, 14% more than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.55%, five basis points less than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index hits the Street at 10 a.m. Eastern. It surveys a variety of factors to determine whether manufacturing is expanding or contracting.

Also look for Construction Spending from the Census Bureau at 10 a.m., two weekly retail reports -- ICSC-Goldman store sales at 7:45 a.m. and Redbook at 8:55 a.m., and motor vehicle sales throughout the day.

Treasury auctions 6-week bills at 11:30 a.m.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers his semi-annual report and testimony about economic conditions and monetary policy to a Senate Committee. This is, of course, a very big deal, and the report, his words, body language, how he arches his eyebrows, any signs of twitchiness, will be watched closely to see whether somewhere in the gray tissue beneath his noble dome, thoughts of inflation might be lurking. Kick-off is at 10 a.m.

The Federal Reserve often posts transcripts of speeches and testimony within a few days of the event.

Bernanke's material will definitely be up on the site at 10.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade April vertical and calendar spreads. Also, May or later straddles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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