Friday, February 25, 2011

2/28 Almanac

On Monday, Feb. 28: Personal income and outlays, pending home sales.

There are 19 days before March options expire, 47 the April and 82 the May.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 1.1% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.8% in a net move up of 0.7%.

The day's extremes: Open $131.48, high $132.41, low $131.40, close $132.33.

SPY closed above the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $131.87-$132.88.

In total, 2.7 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchange, 18% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.6%, three basis points less than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

The Commerce Dept. releases personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. From those figures is calculated the all important savings rate. Shopping till you're dropping? Socking it away? This release tells all.

The Realtors release pending home sales at 10 a.m., data on potential sales where the contract has been signed but not yet closed. As such, is a leading indicator of home sales four to six weeks down the road.

The Agriculture Dept. reports on farm prices at 3 p.m. It contains current month data, so it is much more timely than most econ reports.

Treasury auctions 3- and 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m.

New York Fed Pres. William Dudley and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren give speeches. Dudley is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (as well as being head of the most influential Federal Reserve bank). Rosengren doesn't have a seat at the monetary policy table. I care about Dudley's speech, not Rosengren's.

The Federal Reserve often posts transcripts of speeches and testimony within a few days of the event.

Later next week, look for the manufacturing index on Tuesday, the Beige Book on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the employment situation (unemployment rate) on Friday.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade April vertical and calendar spreads. Also, May or later straddles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Enjoy the weekend!

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