2/17 Channels

• No phase changes, no additions. I smell a three-day weekend looming.

Analysis is based on the market close.

Bull Positions
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sym	bday	blevel	stop	adx ≥40?	2-day?
AUD/JPY	feb7	¥83.666	¥82.211
EBAY	feb1	$31.64	$30.69
EWJ	feb2	$11.25	$10.91
JNK*	feb4	$40.52	$40.20
JNPR	feb4	$38.73	$37.57
NFLX	feb4	$218.00	$211.46
ORCL	jan20	$32.27	$31.30
PM	feb15	$60.14	$58.68		x
WFT	feb1	$24.11	$23.39
XLY	feb7	$38.42	$37.74
XRT	feb14	$49.81	$48.44		x

Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*). "X" after a symbol means it is slated for removal from the list.


Bear Positions

sym	bday	blevel	stop	adx ≥40?	2-day?
ABT	jan28	$46.03	$47.41
AMR	jan20	$7.54	$7.77
BBY	feb11	$33.40	$34.40
FXI	feb9	$41.89	$42.46
JNJ	jan25	$61.25	$62.30
TLT	feb3	$89.90	$91.69
USO	feb15	$35.73	$36.80		x

Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*). "X" after a symbol means it is slated for removal from the list.

Here are the potential trades that I’m tracking using channel analysis.

Tracking for a bull breakout

S

SBUX

SLV

Tracking for a bear breakout

USD/CAD

EWT

EWZ

KO

Key

• bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
• blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
• stop: The current stop/loss price. Early in a bull or bear phase, this will be 5¢ below the low or above the high, respectively, on breakout day.
• adx ≥ 40?: Marked with an "x" if the ADX is at 40 or above, the levels that require an exit if the adx turns down.
• 2-day?: Marked with an "x" on the two days following breakout day. Under certain circumstances, if the price closes below the breakout level on both days, then the position must be exited.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.


No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.