2/9 Channels

Bull phase:
• Added JNK on a break above the 55-day upper channel.
• EWZ, PBR stopped.
Bear phase:
• M turns neutral on channel break.
• TGT stopped.

Analysis is based on Tuesday's market close.

Bull Positions
Added: AUD/JPY, JNK. Stopped: EWZ, PBR.

sym	bday	blevel	stop	adx ≥40?	2-day?
AUD/JPY	feb7	¥83.666	¥82.973
CSCO	feb3	$21.69	$21.64
EBAY	feb1	$31.64	$30.47
EWJ	feb2	$11.25	$11.16
EWZ	feb4	$71.29	$72.84
JNK*	feb4	$40.52	$40.31
JNPR	feb4	$38.73	$38.49
LLY	feb3	$35.61	$35.24
NFLX	feb4	$218.00	$212.84
ORCL	jan20	$32.27	$31.42
PBR	feb3	$38.54	$37.72
WFT	feb1	$24.11	$23.63

Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*). "X" after a symbol means it is slated for removal from the list.


Bear Positions
Stopped: TGT. Neutral break: M. Correction: NFLX moved to bull phase.

sym	bday	blevel	stop	adx ≥40?	2-day?
ABT	jan28	$46.03	$46.55
AMR	jan20	$7.54	$7.78
JNJ	jan25	$61.25	$61.68
M	feb1	$22.78	$23.32
TGT	feb2	$53.31	$55.09
TLT	feb3	$89.90	$90.46

Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*). "X" after a symbol means it is slated for removal from the list.

Here are the potential trades that I’m tracking using channel analysis.

Nearing a bull breakout

None

Nearing a bear breakout
Removed MTG, PEP, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.

KO

Key

• bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
• blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
• stop: The current stop/loss price. Early in a bull or bear phase, this will be 5¢ below the low or above the high, respectively, on breakout day.
• adx ≥ 40?: Marked with an "x" if the ADX is at 40 or above, the levels that require an exit if the adx turns down.
• 2-day?: Marked with an "x" on the two days following breakout day. Under certain circumstances, if the price closes below the breakout level on both days, then the position must be exited.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.


No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.