- Bull phase:
- USO breaks out to bull phase one day after hitting its bear phase stop -- that's volatility!
- AKS, AMD, BA, HD, INTC, NFLX, SBUX, XRT, YHOO off the list on price declines below the stop-loss (defined as the breakout day low minus the 14-day average true range).
- INTC is eliminated because it closed below its breakout level on the two days following breakout day -- the two-day rule.
- XLP is about to run afoul of the two-day rule if it closes below $29.72 today, as seems likely.
Bull Positions
USO breaks out.
AKS, AMD, BA, HD, INTC, NFLX, SBUX, XRT, YHOO stopped. INTC out under the two-day rule.
| sym | bday | blevel | stop | adx ≥40? | 2-day? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKS | feb17 | $17.29 | $16.77 | x | |
| AMD | feb17 | $9.25 | $8.97 | x | |
| AUD/JPY | feb7 | ¥83.666 | ¥82.211 | ||
| BA | feb18 | $72.99 | $71.13 | x | |
| DELL | feb16 | $14.46 | $14.20 | ||
| EBAY | feb1 | $31.64 | $30.69 | ||
| EWJ | feb2 | $11.25 | $10.91 | ||
| HD | feb17 | $38.12 | $37.07 | x | |
| INTC | feb18 | $22.07 | $21.69 | x | |
| JNK* | feb4 | $40.52 | $40.20 | ||
| JNPR | feb4 | $38.73 | $37.57 | ||
| NFLX | feb4 | $218.00 | $211.46 | ||
| ORCL | jan20 | $32.27 | $31.30 | ||
| PM | feb15 | $60.14 | $58.68 | ||
| SBUX | feb18 | $33.78 | $32.77 | x | |
| SLV | feb17 | $30.44 | $29.53 | ||
| USO | feb23 | $39.48 | $38.30 | x | |
| WFT | feb1 | $24.11 | $23.39 | ||
| XLP | feb18 | $29.72 | $29.41 | x | |
| XLY | feb7 | $38.42 | $37.74 | XRT | feb14 | $49.81 | $48.44 |
| YHOO | feb15 | $17.34 | $16.82 |
Bear Positions
USD/CAD, USO stopped
| sym | bday | blevel | stop | adx ≥40? | 2-day? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABT | jan28 | $46.03 | $47.41 | ||
| AMGN | feb18 | $52.36 | $53.51 | x | |
| AMR | jan20 | $7.54 | $7.77 | ||
| BBY | feb11 | $33.40 | $34.40 | ||
| BRCM | feb18 | $41.94 | $43.20 | ||
| JNJ | jan25 | $61.25 | $62.30 | ||
| NOK | feb14 | $9.08 | $9.35 | ||
| TGT | feb18 | $53.06 | $53.62 | ||
| TLT | feb3 | $89.90 | $91.69 | ||
| USD/CAD | feb17 | C$0.98308 | C$0.99321 | x | |
| USO | feb15 | $35.73 | $36.80 |
Here are the potential trades that I’m tracking using channel analysis.
Tracking for a bull breakout
None.
Tracking for a bear breakout
None.
Key
- bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
- blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
- stop: The current stop/loss price. Early in a bull or bear phase, this will be 5¢ below the low or above the high, respectively, on breakout day.
- adx ≥ 40?: Marked with an "x" if the ADX is at 40 or above, the levels that require an exit if the adx turns down.
- 2-day?: Marked with an "x" on the two days following breakout day. Under certain circumstances, if the price closes below the breakout level on both days, then the position must be exited.
About channel analysis
Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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