On Tuesday, March 1: Manufacturing index, construction spending, motor vehicle sales, Big Ben testifies.
There are 18 days before March options expire, 46 the April and 81 the May.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
Monday, February 28, 2011
AMGN Watch
Every trader's nightmare. You get a great signal, open a bull position, and the next day the price heads south. That's Amgen Inc. (AMGN) in a nutshell, which rose like crazy on Friday after some happy research results for one of AMGN's products.
Check out my posting of last Wednesday for a discussion of levels, fundamentals and other reasons to get in.
Check out my posting of last Wednesday for a discussion of levels, fundamentals and other reasons to get in.
2/28 Channels Update
New breakouts today, based on a scan of forex, indicators, sector exchange-traded funds, and -- too much fun! -- stocks with current volume (at around 2:30 p.m. Eastern) of 250,000 shares or more, trading at new yearly highs. (Yes, my bullish bias is showing -- I didn't scan the new yearly lows list. Maybe later this week.)
2/28 Channels
- Bull positions:
- Breakouts today by GG and SLW.
- BA, GPS and PBR added from weekend scan.
- Bear positions:
- CMA stopped after closing above breakout for the two days subsequent to breakout day (two-day rule).
- ABT, EWW and TGT stopped on price rises.
- CX, FCX, MRVL, NEM, NTAP and WMT added from weekend scan.
2/28 Watchlist: Of Interest
- Of interest:
- MVO turns neutral on signal divergence.
- PAYX rises to neutrality in whipsaw move.
- XLU rises to neutral phase.
- Diversification plays:
- Hong Kong, Mexico, China 25 rise to neutrality (EWH, EWW, FXI)
- Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand move to bull phase (EWZ, IDX, THD).
- Turkey to bear phase (TUR).
- Zombies:
- FNMA rises to neutrality
- Earnings plays:
- GRMN to bull phase.
Of interest
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AROW | |||||
| FTR | |||||
| GE | |||||
| GOOG* | |||||
| MVO | |||||
| NLY | |||||
| PAYX | |||||
| SO | |||||
| XLE* | |||||
| XLU |
Diversification plays
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECH | |||||
| EGPT | |||||
| EPI | |||||
| EWA | |||||
| EWH | |||||
| EWJ | |||||
| EWM | |||||
| EWP | |||||
| EWS | |||||
| EWT | |||||
| EWW | |||||
| EWY | |||||
| EWZ | |||||
| EZA | |||||
| FXI | |||||
| IDX | |||||
| RSX | |||||
| THD | |||||
| TUR | |||||
| VGK |
Zombies
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOD* | |||||
| FNMA* |
Earnings plays
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK | |||||
| GPS | |||||
| GRMN | |||||
| WMT |
About the categories:
- Diversification plays: These don’t closely track the U.S. markets or are based on currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
- Earnings plays: I’m tracking these as a legacy as I phase out the strategy of chasing earnings surprises.
- Of interest: Stocks I’m tracking because I find them to be interesting, although not necessarily as a potential play.
- Zombies: These are failed leftovers from what seemed to be good ideas at the time. They stalk the Watchlist like zombies, tying up resources and frightening small children.
Table Abbreviations:
- pfe - Location of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
- pps - Person's Proprietary Signal mode.
- trend - Trend of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
Key to the PPS/PFE tables
| column | color | meaning |
|---|---|---|
| phase | bull phase | |
| bear phase | ||
| pfe | +100 and above | |
| +50 to below 100 | ||
| 0 to below +50 | ||
| below 0 to above -50 | ||
| -50 to above -100 | ||
| below -100 | ||
| pps | bull confirmation | |
| bear confirmation | ||
| trend | uptrend | |
| no trend | ||
| downtrend |
More on the PFE/PPS analysis
Read a detailed explanation of the analytical tools and how they’re used, including trading rules.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
2/28 Watchlist: Price Channel Set
- Price channel bull phase:
- JNK, GPS to bull phase.
- Price channel bear phase:
- BRCM to turns neutral on signal divergence.
- EWH, EWW rise to neutrality in move toward bull phase.
- TUR to bear phase.
2/28 Morningline
- S&P 500 to bear phase, but the price moves contrary to the signal (SPY).
- Fear index turns neutral on signal divergence (VIX).
- Corporate high-yield debt returns to bull phase after four-day whipsaw (JNK).
- Emerging markets rise to neutrality (EEM).
Stocks and Rates
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | |||||
| QQQQ | |||||
| VIX | |||||
| TLT | |||||
| JNK* |
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Weekend Postings
Here's what I've posted over the weekend:
- Slow Trading: Indicators & Forex
- Slow Trading: Watchlist
- 2/27 Channels, with additions from my stock scan
2/27 Channels
An update of the Channels chart showing new additions from the weekend scan.
There were many bear additions on Feb. 22, the date of a sharp decline across nearly all stocks. We'll see if these signals truly have legs.
- Bull list additions: BA, GPS and PBR.
- Bear list additions: CX, FCX, MRVL, NTAP and WMT.
There were many bear additions on Feb. 22, the date of a sharp decline across nearly all stocks. We'll see if these signals truly have legs.
Slow Trading: Watchlist
- EBAY rises to bull phase.
- AMR falls to bear phase.
- FTR to neutral phase on signal divergence.
- Singapore, China to neutral on signal divergences (EWS, FXI).
Slow Trading: Indicators & Forex
- Indicators, Forex end February unchanged from prior week.
Indicators and Forex from the monthly charts.
My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting.
Indicators
Stocks and Rates
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | |||||
| QQQQ | |||||
| VIX | |||||
| TLT | |||||
| JNK* |
Friday, February 25, 2011
2/28 Almanac
On Monday, Feb. 28: Personal income and outlays, pending home sales.
There are 19 days before March options expire, 47 the April and 82 the May.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 19 days before March options expire, 47 the April and 82 the May.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
2/25 Channels
- Bear positions:
- STT and WDC break out.
- CMA breaks out, but then is stopped two days later on a price rise.
- Long-running bear position on Turkey (TUR) added.
- ABT crosses the upper 20-day channel line and returns to neutral phase.
2/25 Watchlist: Of Interest
- Of interest:
- FTR, GE, GOOG, PAYX to bear phase.
- NLY turns neutral on signal divergence.
- Diversification plays:
- Spain rises to neutrality (EWP).
- South Africa to bull phase (EZA).
- Thailand turns neutral on signal divergence (THD).
- Europe to bear phase (VGK).
- Zombies:
- AOD to bear phase.
Of interest
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AROW | |||||
| FTR | |||||
| GE | |||||
| GOOG* | |||||
| MVO | |||||
| NLY | |||||
| PAYX | |||||
| SO | |||||
| XLE* | |||||
| XLU |
Diversification plays
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECH | |||||
| EGPT | |||||
| EPI | |||||
| EWA | |||||
| EWH | |||||
| EWJ | |||||
| EWM | |||||
| EWP | |||||
| EWS | |||||
| EWT | |||||
| EWW | |||||
| EWY | |||||
| EWZ | |||||
| EZA | |||||
| FXI | |||||
| IDX | |||||
| RSX | |||||
| THD | |||||
| TUR | |||||
| VGK |
Zombies
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOD* | |||||
| FNMA* |
Earnings plays
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK | |||||
| GPS | |||||
| GRMN | |||||
| WMT |
About the categories:
- Diversification plays: These don’t closely track the U.S. markets or are based on currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
- Earnings plays: I’m tracking these as a legacy as I phase out the strategy of chasing earnings surprises.
- Of interest: Stocks I’m tracking because I find them to be interesting, although not necessarily as a potential play.
- Zombies: These are failed leftovers from what seemed to be good ideas at the time. They stalk the Watchlist like zombies, tying up resources and frightening small children.
Table Abbreviations:
- pfe - Location of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
- pps - Person's Proprietary Signal mode.
- trend - Trend of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
Key to the PPS/PFE tables
| column | color | meaning |
|---|---|---|
| phase | bull phase | |
| bear phase | ||
| pfe | +100 and above | |
| +50 to below 100 | ||
| 0 to below +50 | ||
| below 0 to above -50 | ||
| -50 to above -100 | ||
| below -100 | ||
| pps | bull confirmation | |
| bear confirmation | ||
| trend | uptrend | |
| no trend | ||
| downtrend |
More on the PFE/PPS analysis
Read a detailed explanation of the analytical tools and how they’re used, including trading rules.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
2/25 Watchlist: Price Channel Set
- Bull positions:
- USO to bull phase.
- WFT to bear phase.
- Bear positions:
- CMA, FTR to bear phase.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
2/25 Almanac
On Friday, Feb. 25: Gross domestic product.
There are 22 days before March options expire, 50 the April and 85 the May.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 22 days before March options expire, 50 the April and 85 the May.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
2/24 Channels
- Bull positions:
- AUD/JPY stopped on price decline.
- ORCL out after piercing lower 20-day channel.
- XLP out after closing below breakout level for two consecutive days after breakout -- the two-day rule.
- Bear positions:
- EWH, EWS, EWT, EWW, FTR and USD/CHF break out below the 55-day lower price-channel line.
- TLT stopped on price rise.
2/24 Watchlist: Of Interest
A change: The Watchlist from today is filed in two parts, subtitled Price Channel Set and Of Interest.
Of interest
Diversification plays
Zombies
Earnings plays
About the categories:
Table Abbreviations:
Key to the PPS/PFE tables
More on the PFE/PPS analysis
Read a detailed explanation of the analytical tools and how they’re used, including trading rules.
Disclaimer
- Of interest:
- MVO to bull phase.
- PAYX whipsaws back to neutral phase.
- Diversification plays:
- Spain to bear phase (EWP).
- Thailand turns neutral on signal divergence (THD).
- Earnings plays:
- GPS turns neutral on signal divergence.
Of interest
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AROW | |||||
| FTR | |||||
| GE* | |||||
| GOOG* | |||||
| MVO | |||||
| NLY | |||||
| PAYX | |||||
| SO | |||||
| XLE* | |||||
| XLU |
Diversification plays
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECH | |||||
| EGPT | |||||
| EPI | |||||
| EWA | |||||
| EWH | |||||
| EWJ | |||||
| EWM | |||||
| EWP | |||||
| EWS | |||||
| EWT | |||||
| EWW | |||||
| EWY | |||||
| EWZ | |||||
| EZA | |||||
| FXI | |||||
| IDX | |||||
| RSX | |||||
| THD | |||||
| TUR | |||||
| VGK |
Zombies
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOD* | |||||
| FNMA* |
Earnings plays
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK | |||||
| GPS | |||||
| GRMN | |||||
| WMT |
About the categories:
- Diversification plays: These don’t closely track the U.S. markets or are based on currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
- Earnings plays: I’m tracking these as a legacy as I phase out the strategy of chasing earnings surprises.
- Of interest: Stocks I’m tracking because I find them to be interesting, although not necessarily as a potential play.
- Zombies: These are failed leftovers from what seemed to be good ideas at the time. They stalk the Watchlist like zombies, tying up resources and frightening small children.
Table Abbreviations:
- pfe - Location of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
- pps - Person's Proprietary Signal mode.
- trend - Trend of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
Key to the PPS/PFE tables
| column | color | meaning |
|---|---|---|
| phase | bull phase | |
| bear phase | ||
| pfe | +100 and above | |
| +50 to below 100 | ||
| 0 to below +50 | ||
| below 0 to above -50 | ||
| -50 to above -100 | ||
| below -100 | ||
| pps | bull confirmation | |
| bear confirmation | ||
| trend | uptrend | |
| no trend | ||
| downtrend |
More on the PFE/PPS analysis
Read a detailed explanation of the analytical tools and how they’re used, including trading rules.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
2/24 Watchlist: Price Channel Set
A change: The Watchlist from today is filed in two parts, subtitled Price Channel Set and Of Interest.
- Price channel bear phase:
- AMR, JNJ to bear phase.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
2/24 Almanac
On Thursday, Feb. 24: Jobless claims, durable goods, new home sales.
There are 23 days before March options expire, 51 the April and 86 the May.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 23 days before March options expire, 51 the April and 86 the May.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
AMGN Watch
'Tis the season of the bears, among them, the biotech company Amgen Inc. (AMGN), which fallen past the lower 55-day price-channel line last Friday and hasn't looked back.
It would help my comfort level if its financial were a bit more bleak.
AMGN has been in bear phase on the more volatile indicators since late January.
It would help my comfort level if its financial were a bit more bleak.
AMGN has been in bear phase on the more volatile indicators since late January.
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN |
2/23 Channels
- Bull phase:
- USO breaks out to bull phase one day after hitting its bear phase stop -- that's volatility!
- AKS, AMD, BA, HD, INTC, NFLX, SBUX, XRT, YHOO off the list on price declines below the stop-loss (defined as the breakout day low minus the 14-day average true range).
- INTC is eliminated because it closed below its breakout level on the two days following breakout day -- the two-day rule.
- XLP is about to run afoul of the two-day rule if it closes below $29.72 today, as seems likely.
2/23 Watchlist
- Price channel bull phase:
- AKS, AMD, HD, JNK, YHOO turn neutral on signal divergence.
- INTC, SBUX, XLY, XRT fall to neutrality.
- Price channel bear phase:
- BBY to bear phase.
- TLT to bull phase.
- USD turns neutral on signal divergence.
- Of interest:
- FTR falls to neutrality on large negative earnings surprise.
- PAYX, XLU to bear phase.
- Diversification plays:
- India turns neutral on signal divergence (EPI).
- Japan falls to neutral (EWJ).
- Mexico to bear phase (EWW).
- Brazil to bull phase (EWZ).
- Russia rises to neutrality (RSX).
- Zombies:
- FNMA to bear phase.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
2/23 Almanac
On Wednesday, Feb. 23: Existing home sales.
There are 24 days before March options expire, 52 the April and 87 the May.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 24 days before March options expire, 52 the April and 87 the May.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
SBUX Watch
Caffeine-pushers Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) moved to price-channel bull phase on Friday, but today, in common with every issue on my list save one, immediately declined to well below the breakout level.
(Of the stocks I'm tracking, only PM -- Phillip Morris -- went against the trend, continuing to rise as it has since its bull breakout on Feb. 15.)
SBUX is a high-return low-debt stock -- the sort of growth stock that at first glance makes Warren Buffet salivate. However, it has been stuck in a sideways range since early December, and previous bull signals on the price-channel chart have failed to generate enough mo' to cause SBUX to break out of that range.
The more volatile technical analytics have been whipsawing madly, a sure sign of a stock going nowhere. The most recent phase change came with today's price decline, which has traversed 3.2% intraday and brought the stock from bull phase to neutral.
(Of the stocks I'm tracking, only PM -- Phillip Morris -- went against the trend, continuing to rise as it has since its bull breakout on Feb. 15.)
SBUX is a high-return low-debt stock -- the sort of growth stock that at first glance makes Warren Buffet salivate. However, it has been stuck in a sideways range since early December, and previous bull signals on the price-channel chart have failed to generate enough mo' to cause SBUX to break out of that range.
The more volatile technical analytics have been whipsawing madly, a sure sign of a stock going nowhere. The most recent phase change came with today's price decline, which has traversed 3.2% intraday and brought the stock from bull phase to neutral.
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX |
INTC Watch
Intel Corp. (INTC) crossed into price-channel bull phase on Friday, suggesting that the world's largest micro-processor maker may be poised to break out of a sideways trend that has held sway since late October, and a falling wedge (a bullish pattern) that has been under construction since the fall of 2002.
Despite a downward gap at today's open, the more volatile analytical tools say that INTC is on the upswing, for the near term at least.
Despite a downward gap at today's open, the more volatile analytical tools say that INTC is on the upswing, for the near term at least.
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC |
2/22 Channels
- Bull phase:
- AKS, AMD, BA, DELL, HD, INTC, XLP, YHOO added.
- Bear phase:
- BBY, USO hit stop price.
- AMGN, BRCM, NOK, TGT added.
Bull Positions
AKS, AMD, BA, DELL, HD, INTC, XLP, YHOO break out.
| sym | bday | blevel | stop | adx ≥40? | 2-day? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKS | feb17 | $17.29 | $16.77 | x | |
| AMD | feb17 | $9.25 | $8.97 | x | |
| AUD/JPY | feb7 | ¥83.666 | ¥82.211 | ||
| BA | feb18 | $72.99 | $71.13 | x | |
| DELL | feb16 | $14.46 | $14.20 | ||
| EBAY | feb1 | $31.64 | $30.69 | ||
| EWJ | feb2 | $11.25 | $10.91 | ||
| HD | feb17 | $38.12 | $37.07 | x | |
| INTC | feb18 | $22.07 | $21.69 | x | |
| JNK* | feb4 | $40.52 | $40.20 | ||
| JNPR | feb4 | $38.73 | $37.57 | ||
| NFLX | feb4 | $218.00 | $211.46 | ||
| ORCL | jan20 | $32.27 | $31.30 | ||
| PM | feb15 | $60.14 | $58.68 | ||
| SBUX | feb18 | $33.78 | $32.77 | x | |
| SLV | feb17 | $30.44 | $29.53 | x | |
| WFT | feb1 | $24.11 | $23.39 | ||
| XLP | feb18 | $29.72 | $29.41 | x | |
| XLY | feb7 | $38.42 | $37.74 | tr> | XRT | feb14 | $49.81 | $48.44 |
| YHOO | feb15 | $17.34 | $16.82 |
2/22 Watchlist
- Price channel bull phase:
- AUD/JPY, BA, EWJ, NFLX, WFT fall into neutrality.
- EBAY, JNPR turn neutral on signal divergence.
- Price channel bear phase:
- AMR falls into neutrality.
- BBY turns neutral on signal divergence.
- USO to bull phase.
- Of interest:
- GE, GOOG fall into neutrality.
- MVO rises to neutral phase.
- Diversification plays:
- India to bull phase (EPI).
- Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, China to bear phase (EWH, EWT, EWY, FXI).
- Zombies:
- AOD to bear phase.
- FNMA rises into neutrality on signal divergence.
I’ve done a major reworking of the Watchlist.
There are now three sections.
The first section, "From the price channel list", provides coverage of stocks that appear on the price channel analysis.
The second section, "Of interest", tracks stocks that I’m watching for a variety of reasons -- either I find them interesting or they are zombies lurching through my portfolio, the remnants of former trades gone bad. The "Diversification" sub-section tracks global exchange-traded funds, greatly expanded from its previous version.
The third section, "Earnings plays", is a selection of stocks that I have been tracking in anticipation of earnings surprises. I’m phasing that practice out as a primary strategy.
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