- Corporate high-yield debt to bull phase; unconfirmed (JNK).
- AUD/USD to bull phase; confirmed (preceding bear phase was never confirmed).
- INTC to bear phase; unconfirmed.
- Awaiting confirmation
- Bull: JNK
- Bear: INTC
My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting.
Indicators
Stocks and Rates
| pps | pfe trend | pfe loc | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $110.37 sep6 | $125.04 | |||
| QQQQ | $45.82 sep6 | $55.52 | |||
| VIX | $18.80 dec6 | $15.63 | |||
| TLT | $105.09 sep6 | $89.71 | |||
| JNK | $40.17 dec20 | $41.95. |
Oil and Gold
| pps | pfe trend | pfe loc | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | $36.23 nov29 | $39.73 | |||
| GLD | $119.70 aug16 | $144.35 |
Global
| pps | pfe trend | pfe loc | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | US$1.41 nov8 | US$1.21 | |||
| USD/JPY | ¥82.47 nov15 | ¥85.2` | |||
| EEM | $46.27 nov22 | $43.32 |
Forex
| pps | pfe trend | pfe loc | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | US$1.41 nov8 | US$1.21 | |||
| AUD/USD | US$0.987 dec20 | US$1.04 | |||
| USD/CAD | C$1.03 sep20 | C$0.99 | |||
| USD/JPY | ¥82.47 nov15 | ¥85 | |||
| GBP/CHF | SF1.56 nov29 | SF1.54 | |||
| GBP/USD | US$1.60 nov22 | US$1.53 | |||
| EUR/JPY | ¥114 oct25 | ¥104 | |||
| AUD/JPY | ¥79 nov1 | ¥85 | |||
| USD/CHF | SF0.98 dec13 | SF0.97 | |||
| NZD/USD | US$0.78 nov22 | US$0.72 | |||
| USD/MXN | M$12.24 nov22 | M$12.67 |
Watchlists
Earnings
| pps | pfe trend | pfe loc | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | $256.64 sep6 | $333.61 | |||
| CHRW | $57.55 jul19 | $82.41 | |||
| ENTR | $8.77 nov29 | $11.36 | |||
| INTC | $18.89 dec20 | $20.32 | |||
| LRCX | $39.19 sep20 | $53.16 | |||
| NKE* | $72.71 jul26 | $91.16 | |||
| PAYX* | $26.06 sep20 | $31.15 | |||
| TROW | $49.39 sep13 | $63.51 | |||
| VAR | $50.69 jun14 | $72.77 |
Key to earnings plays
(sorted by earnings date)
| sym | roe | debt/ equity | div% | ex-div | earns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKE | 20.8% | 0.06x | 1.4% | feb2 | dec21 |
| PAYX | 34.6% | 0.00x | 4.1% | jan | dec21 |
| INTC | 24.3% | 0.05x | 3.3% | feb3 | jan13 |
| AAPL | 35.3% | 0.00x | jan24 | ||
| LRCX | 30.9% | 0.01x | jan24 | ||
| TROW | 21.8% | 0.00x | 1.7% | dec28 | jan24 |
| VAR | 28.4% | 0.03x | jan26 | ||
| CHRW | 44.8% | 0.00x | 1.5% | dec16 | jan31 |
| ENTR | 21.3% | 0.00x | jan31 |
Other bull plays
| pps | pfe trend | pfe loc | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AROW | $24.52 nov1 | $30.59 | |||
| CVX | $73.82 jul26 | $88.30 | |||
| D | $44.71 oct25 | $39.57 | |||
| EPD | $42.50 nov29 | $37.46 | |||
| FTR | $7.76 sep13 | $9.83 | |||
| MVO* | $30.66 nov15 | $37.61 | |||
| NLY | $17.99 oct18 | $18.74 | |||
| SO | $33.25 jun14 | $39.00 |
Key to other bull plays
| sym | roe | debt/ equity | div% | ex-div | earns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AROW | 14.9% | 0.58 | 3.6% | mar | jan17 |
| CVX | 17.4% | 0.10 | 3.3% | feb | jan28 |
| FTR | 3.8% | 1.55 | 8.0% | mar | feb21 |
| MVO | 81.6% | 0.00 | 7.0% | jan | |
| NLY | 8.2% | 6.42 | 15.0% | dec | jan |
| SO | 13.5% | 1.18 | 4.8% | jan | jan24 |
Diversification plays
| pps | pfe trend | pfe loc | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPI | $28.23 nov8 | $21.52 | |||
| EWZ | $76.41 nov 22 | $71.45 | |||
| FXI | $45.65 nov15 | $41.65 | |||
| RSX | $31.54 sep20 | $37.69 | |||
| VWO | $47.01 nov22 | $44.05 |
Key to diversification plays
| sym | underlying |
|---|---|
| EPI | India |
| EWZ | Brazil |
| FXI | China |
| RSX | Russia |
| VWO | Global |
Zombies
| pps | pfe trend | pfe loc | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOD* | $5.49 sep27 | $6.11 | |||
| FNMA* | $0.37 nov15 | $0.29 | |||
| MCO* | $27.43 dec13 | $29.98 |
Key to zombies
| sym | roe | debt/ equity | div% | ex-div | earns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOD | (fund) | 11.3m% | dec22 | n/a | |
| FNMA | feb | ||||
| MCO | 1.5% | feb | feb4 |
About the categories:
- Earnings plays: I think these are likely to rise sharply on a real or anticipated earnings surprise.
- Other bull plays: I think these are more likely to rise than fall; excludes earnings plays.
- Bear plays: I think these are more likely to fall than rise.
- Diversification plays: These don’t closely track the U.S. markets or are based on currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
- Zombies: These are failed leftovers from what seemed to be good ideas at the time. They stalk the Watchlist like zombies, tying up resources and frightening small children.
PPS/PFE Analytical Tools
The analysis uses the daily Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), developed by John Person, and the weekly Person's Pivot, which he also developed.
These are black box signals -- the "proprietary" means that Mr. Person knows how they work under the hood, and I don't. But they have shown a fair degree of success in identifying good entry and exit points, and I find them useful.
For confirmation, the analysis uses an indicator called the polarized fractal efficiency (pfe) technical tool. It uses the fractal math of Benoit Mandelbrot to measure how efficiently move between levels. The higher the efficiency, the more directional the price trend.
The math for the pfe is public knowledge, but it is well above my math knowledge, and so to me is also a black-box signal.
This is a relatively new technical tool, based on fractal math. Investopedia has only a cursory explanation. Wikipedia is silent on the subject. ThinkOrSwim has a fuller explanation.
PPS/PFE Trading Rules
These rules are very preliminary. I’m still trying to figure out how the polarized fractal efficiency signal works.
When Person’s Proprietary Signal (pps) is in bull phase, enter when the polarized fractal efficiency (pfe) turns to an uptrend (pfe trend). A pps signal and pfe uptrend have less strength but greater upside potential when the pfe location (pfe loc) is below -50, and greater strength but less upside potential when the pfe location is above +50.
When the pps in in bear phase, enter when the pfe trend turns down. The set up has less strength but greater downside potential when the pfe loc is above +50, and greater strength but less downside potential when the pfe loc is below -50.
The target is the monthly Person’s Pivot level in the direction of the trend, determined by the pps.
The question is how to treat the pfe when it has flatlined at the top of its range, above 100. My preliminary observations are that the price by then has had a large upward run and tends to present a picture of exhaustion. However, by the description of the pfe, a high level should indicate a continued strong trend.
This is something that i’ll figure out as I go along.
Key to the PPS/PFE tables
| column | color | meaning |
|---|---|---|
| pps | bull phase | |
| bear phase | ||
| pfe trend | uptrend | |
| no trend | ||
| downtrend | ||
| pfe loc | above +50 | |
| 0 to +50 | ||
| -1 to -50 | ||
| below -50 |
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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