12/28 Watchlist

Many, many phase changes. I wonder if the light intra-holiday volume is affecting the validity of signals, increasing the chances of a false phase change? In theory, it should have an impact, since technical analysis is like public opinion polling: The greater the universe polled (the greater the number of traders), the more representative the results.

• Earnings plays:
• AAPL to bull phase on the macd; confirmed.
• CHRW to bear phase on the macd; unconfirmed.
• ENTR bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) ghosted away intraday on Monday, returns today; unconfirmed.
• LRCX remains in pps bull phase after Monday's bull phase ghosts away.
• TROW to bear phase on the macd; unconfirmed.
• VAR to bull phase on the Heikin-Ashi; confirmed.
• Other bull plays:
• AROW to bear phase on the parabolic sar, Heikin-Ashi; unconfirmed.
• D to bear phase on the Heikin-Ashi.
• EPD polarized fractal efficiency (pfe) line turns down.
• Diversification plays:
• India to bear phase on the pse, Heikin-Ashi; unconfirmed (EPI).
• Russia to bear phase on the macd; unconfirmed (RSX).
• Zombies:
• AOD to bull phase on the Heikin-Ashi; confirmed.

Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.

My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting.

Earnings plays

	ha-trend	pps	psar	macd		pfe trend	pfe loc		ma20	ma50	ma200
AAPL
CHRW
ENTR
INTC
LRCX
NKE*
PAYX*
TROW
VAR

Key to earnings plays
(sorted by earnings date)

sym	roe	debt/ equity	div%	ex-div	earns
NKE	20.8%	0.06x	1.4%	feb2	dec21
PAYX	34.6%	0.00x	4.1%	jan	dec21
INTC	24.3%	0.05x	3.3%	feb3	jan13
AAPL	35.3%	0.00x			jan24
LRCX	30.9%	0.01x			jan24
TROW	21.8%	0.00x	1.7%	dec28	jan24
VAR	28.4%	0.03x			jan26
CHRW	44.8%	0.00x	1.5%	dec16	jan31
ENTR	21.3%	0.00x			jan31

"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.


Other bull plays

	ha-trend	pps	psar	macd		pfe trend	pfe loc		ma20	ma50	ma200
AROW
CVX
D
EPD
FTR
MVO*
NLY
SO

Key to other bull plays

sym	roe	debt/ equity	div%	ex-div	earns
AROW	14.9%	0.58x	3.6%	mar	jan17
CVX	17.4%	0.10x	3.3%	feb	jan28
D	22.6%	1.37x	4.2%	feb	jan24
EPD	15.0%	1.23x	5.7%	jan	jan
FTR	3.8%	1.55x	8.0%	mar	feb21
MVO	81.6%	0.00x	7.0%	jan
NLY	8.2%	6.42x	15.0%	dec	jan
SO	13.5%	1.18x	4.8%	jan	jan24

"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.


Bear plays
None.

Diversification plays

EPI
EWZ
FXI
RSX
VWO

Key to diversification plays

sym	underlying
EPI	India
EWZ	Brazil
FXI	China
RSX	Russia
VWO	Emerging Markets

Zombies

AOD*
FNMA*
MCO*

Key to zombies

sym	roe	debt/ equity	div%	ex-div	earns
AOD	(fund)		11.3m%	dec22	n/a
FNMA					feb
MCO			1.5%	feb	feb4

"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.


Futures File

Potential earnings plays

sym	earnings
CTSH	feb7
CMG	feb9
TQNT	feb9
PCLN	feb14
AVGO	feb21
URBN	feb28
GES	mar14
LULU	mar

Slow Trade Positions

• Bull: SPY, PAYX.

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The stocks and exchange-traded funds on my Watchlists are instruments that I’m watching. Listing on a Watchlist does not imply that I own the issue.

Abbreviations:

• h-a trend - Heikin-Ashi trend.
• pps - Person's Proprietary Signal.
• pfe trend - Trend of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
• pfe loc - Location of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
  
• psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse



• ma20 - 20-day moving average



• ma50 - 50-day moving average



• ma200 - 200-day moving average



• macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

• Signal Section:
• h-a trend: green for two up candles, red for two down candles, yellow for one of either.
• pps, psar, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear.
• Confirmation Section:
• pfe trend: green for uptrending, red for downtrending, yellow for no trend.
• pfe loc: location of the pfe - green for above 50, light green for zero to 50, orange for below zero to -50, red for below -50.
• Environment Section:
• ma20, ma50, ma200: green for above the average, red for below the average.

About the categories:

• Earnings plays: I think these are likely to rise sharply on a real or anticipated earnings surprise.
• Other bull plays: I think these are more likely to rise than fall; excludes earnings plays.
• Bear plays: I think these are more likely to fall than rise.
• Diversification plays: These don’t closely track the U.S. markets or are based on currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
• Zombies: These are failed leftovers from what seemed to be good ideas at the time. They stalk the Watchlist like zombies, tying up resources and frightening small children.