Sunday, December 19, 2010

Weeklies

  • U.S. dollar to bear phase against the Swiss franc (USD/CHF).
  • New stocks added to the Earnings Play section of the Watchlist.
  • Zombie MCO to bear phase.

My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting.



Indicators

Stocks and Rates
ppspps opentarget
SPY $110.37 sep6 $125.04
QQQQ $45.82 sep6 $55.52
VIX $18.80 dec6 $15.63
TLT $105.09 sep6 $89.71
JNK $40.31 nov22 $39.19.

Oil and Gold
ppspps opentarget
USO $36.23 nov29 $39.73
GLD $119.70 aug16 $144.35

Global
ppspps opentarget
EUR/USD US$1.41 nov8 US$1.21
USD/JPY ¥82.47 nov15 ¥85.2`
EEM $46.27 nov22 $43.32


Forex

ppspps opentarget
EUR/USD US$1.41 nov8 US$1.21
AUD/USD US$0.99 nov22 US$0.94
USD/CAD C$1.03 sep20 C$0.99
USD/JPY ¥82.47 nov15 ¥85
GBP/CHF SF1.56 nov29 SF1.54
GBP/USD US$1.60 nov22 US$1.53
EUR/JPY ¥114 oct25 ¥104
AUD/JPY ¥79 nov1 ¥85
USD/CHF SF0.98 dec13 SF0.97
NZD/USD US$0.78 nov22 US$0.72
USD/MXN M$12.24 nov22 M$12.67


Watchlists

Earnings
ppspps opentarget
AAPL $256.64 sep6 $333.61
CHRW $57.55 jul19 $82.41
ENTR $8.77 nov29 $11.36
INTC $18.89 sep20 $22.65
LRCX $39.19 sep20 $53.16
NKE* $72.71 jul26 $91.16
PAYX* $26.06 sep20 $31.15
TROW $49.39 sep13 $63.51
VAR $50.69 jun14 $72.77


Key to earnings plays
(sorted by earnings date)
symroedebt/
equity
div%ex-divearns
NKE20.8%0.06x1.4%feb2dec21
PAYX34.6%0.00x4.1%jandec21
INTC24.3%0.05x3.3%feb3jan13
AAPL35.3%0.00x  jan24
LRCX30.9%0.01x jan24
TROW21.8%0.00x1.7%dec28jan24
VAR28.4%0.03x  jan26
CHRW44.8%0.00x1.5%dec16jan31
ENTR21.3%0.00x  jan31
"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.


Other bull plays
ppspps opentarget
AROW $24.52 nov1 $30.59
CVX $73.82 jul26 $88.30
D $44.71 oct25 $39.57
EPD $42.50 nov29 $37.46
FTR* $7.76 sep13 $9.83
MVO* $30.66 nov15 $37.61
NLY $17.99 oct18 $18.74
SO $33.25 jun14 $39.00


Key to other bull plays
symroedebt/
equity
div%ex-divearns
AROW14.9%0.583.6%marjan17
CVX17.4%0.103.3%febjan28
FTR3.8%1.558.0%marfeb21
MVO81.6%0.007.0%jan 
NLY8.2%6.4215.0%decjan
SO13.5%1.184.8%janjan24
"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.


Diversification plays
ppspps opentarget
EPI $28.23 nov8 $21.52
EWZ $76.41 nov 22 $71.45
FXI $45.65 nov15 $41.65
RSX $31.54 sep20 $37.69
VWO $47.01 nov22 $44.05


Key to diversification plays
symunderlying
EPIIndia
EWZBrazil
FXIChina
RSXRussia
VWOGlobal


Zombies
ppspps opentarget
AOD* $5.49 sep27 $6.11
FNMA* $0.37 nov15 $0.29
MCO* $27.43 dec13 $29.98


Key to zombies
symroedebt/
equity
div%ex-divearns
AOD(fund) 11.3m%dec22n/a
FNMA    feb
MCO  1.5%febfeb4
"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.


The analysis uses the weekly Person's Proprietary Signal, developed by John Person, and the monthly Person's Pivot, which he also developed.

These are black box signals -- the "proprietary" means that Mr. Person knows how they work under the hood, and I don't. But they have shown a fair degree of success in identifying good entry and exit points, and I find them useful.

On the glance, "pps open" means the price at the start of trading in the United States on the week the signal appeared. The actual appearance may in fact have been days later.

“Target” means the nearest Person’s Pivot level in the direction of the phase -- upper pivot for bull phase, lower pivot for bear phase.

About the categories:
  • Earnings plays: I think these are likely to rise sharply on a real or anticipated earnings surprise.
  • Other bull plays: I think these are more likely to rise than fall; excludes earnings plays.
  • Bear plays: I think these are more likely to fall than rise.
  • Diversification plays: These don’t closely track the U.S. markets or are based on currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
  • Zombies: These are failed leftovers from what seemed to be good ideas at the time. They stalk the Watchlist like zombies, tying up resources and frightening small children.



Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.


No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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