- U.S. dollar to bear phase against the Swiss franc (USD/CHF).
- New stocks added to the Earnings Play section of the Watchlist.
- Zombie MCO to bear phase.
My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting.
Indicators
Stocks and Rates
| pps | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $110.37 sep6 | $125.04 | |
| QQQQ | $45.82 sep6 | $55.52 | |
| VIX | $18.80 dec6 | $15.63 | |
| TLT | $105.09 sep6 | $89.71 | |
| JNK | $40.31 nov22 | $39.19. |
Oil and Gold
| pps | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USO | $36.23 nov29 | $39.73 | |
| GLD | $119.70 aug16 | $144.35 |
Global
| pps | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | US$1.41 nov8 | US$1.21 | |
| USD/JPY | ¥82.47 nov15 | ¥85.2` | |
| EEM | $46.27 nov22 | $43.32 |
Forex
| pps | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | US$1.41 nov8 | US$1.21 | |
| AUD/USD | US$0.99 nov22 | US$0.94 | |
| USD/CAD | C$1.03 sep20 | C$0.99 | |
| USD/JPY | ¥82.47 nov15 | ¥85 | |
| GBP/CHF | SF1.56 nov29 | SF1.54 | |
| GBP/USD | US$1.60 nov22 | US$1.53 | |
| EUR/JPY | ¥114 oct25 | ¥104 | |
| AUD/JPY | ¥79 nov1 | ¥85 | |
| USD/CHF | SF0.98 dec13 | SF0.97 | |
| NZD/USD | US$0.78 nov22 | US$0.72 | |
| USD/MXN | M$12.24 nov22 | M$12.67 |
Watchlists
Earnings
| pps | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | $256.64 sep6 | $333.61 | |
| CHRW | $57.55 jul19 | $82.41 | |
| ENTR | $8.77 nov29 | $11.36 | |
| INTC | $18.89 sep20 | $22.65 | |
| LRCX | $39.19 sep20 | $53.16 | |
| NKE* | $72.71 jul26 | $91.16 | |
| PAYX* | $26.06 sep20 | $31.15 | |
| TROW | $49.39 sep13 | $63.51 | |
| VAR | $50.69 jun14 | $72.77 |
Key to earnings plays
(sorted by earnings date)
| sym | roe | debt/ equity | div% | ex-div | earns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKE | 20.8% | 0.06x | 1.4% | feb2 | dec21 |
| PAYX | 34.6% | 0.00x | 4.1% | jan | dec21 |
| INTC | 24.3% | 0.05x | 3.3% | feb3 | jan13 |
| AAPL | 35.3% | 0.00x | jan24 | ||
| LRCX | 30.9% | 0.01x | jan24 | ||
| TROW | 21.8% | 0.00x | 1.7% | dec28 | jan24 |
| VAR | 28.4% | 0.03x | jan26 | ||
| CHRW | 44.8% | 0.00x | 1.5% | dec16 | jan31 |
| ENTR | 21.3% | 0.00x | jan31 |
Other bull plays
| pps | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AROW | $24.52 nov1 | $30.59 | |
| CVX | $73.82 jul26 | $88.30 | |
| D | $44.71 oct25 | $39.57 | |
| EPD | $42.50 nov29 | $37.46 | |
| FTR* | $7.76 sep13 | $9.83 | |
| MVO* | $30.66 nov15 | $37.61 | |
| NLY | $17.99 oct18 | $18.74 | |
| SO | $33.25 jun14 | $39.00 |
Key to other bull plays
| sym | roe | debt/ equity | div% | ex-div | earns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AROW | 14.9% | 0.58 | 3.6% | mar | jan17 |
| CVX | 17.4% | 0.10 | 3.3% | feb | jan28 |
| FTR | 3.8% | 1.55 | 8.0% | mar | feb21 |
| MVO | 81.6% | 0.00 | 7.0% | jan | |
| NLY | 8.2% | 6.42 | 15.0% | dec | jan |
| SO | 13.5% | 1.18 | 4.8% | jan | jan24 |
Diversification plays
| pps | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPI | $28.23 nov8 | $21.52 | |
| EWZ | $76.41 nov 22 | $71.45 | |
| FXI | $45.65 nov15 | $41.65 | |
| RSX | $31.54 sep20 | $37.69 | |
| VWO | $47.01 nov22 | $44.05 |
Key to diversification plays
| sym | underlying |
|---|---|
| EPI | India |
| EWZ | Brazil |
| FXI | China |
| RSX | Russia |
| VWO | Global |
Zombies
| pps | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AOD* | $5.49 sep27 | $6.11 | |
| FNMA* | $0.37 nov15 | $0.29 | |
| MCO* | $27.43 dec13 | $29.98 |
Key to zombies
| sym | roe | debt/ equity | div% | ex-div | earns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOD | (fund) | 11.3m% | dec22 | n/a | |
| FNMA | feb | ||||
| MCO | 1.5% | feb | feb4 |
The analysis uses the weekly Person's Proprietary Signal, developed by John Person, and the monthly Person's Pivot, which he also developed.
These are black box signals -- the "proprietary" means that Mr. Person knows how they work under the hood, and I don't. But they have shown a fair degree of success in identifying good entry and exit points, and I find them useful.
On the glance, "pps open" means the price at the start of trading in the United States on the week the signal appeared. The actual appearance may in fact have been days later.
“Target” means the nearest Person’s Pivot level in the direction of the phase -- upper pivot for bull phase, lower pivot for bear phase.
About the categories:
- Earnings plays: I think these are likely to rise sharply on a real or anticipated earnings surprise.
- Other bull plays: I think these are more likely to rise than fall; excludes earnings plays.
- Bear plays: I think these are more likely to fall than rise.
- Diversification plays: These don’t closely track the U.S. markets or are based on currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
- Zombies: These are failed leftovers from what seemed to be good ideas at the time. They stalk the Watchlist like zombies, tying up resources and frightening small children.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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