Monday, December 20, 2010

12/20 Watchlist

  • Earnings plays:
    • AAPL to bear phase on the parabolic sar.
    • ENTR in bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) as Friday's bear phase ghosts away.
    • TROW to bear phase on the macd.
    • VAR to bull phase on the macd.
  • Other bull plays:
    • AROW to bear phase on the pps, parabolic sar
    • FTR whipsaws back to pps bear phase.
    • MVO ghosts back to pps bull phase.
    • NLY moves to pps bull phase; four phase changes in 10 trading days.
    • SO to bull phase on the pps, macd.
  • Zombies:
    • AOD to pps bull phase.
    • FNMA to bull phase on the pps, parabolic sar, macd.
    • MCO to bear phase on the parabolic sar.
    Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting. Earnings plays
    ppspsarmacd obvh-a trend ma20ma50ma200
    AAPL
    CHRW
    ENTR
    INTC
    LRCX
    NKE*
    PAYX*
    TROW
    VAR
    Key to earnings plays (sorted by earnings date)
    symroedebt/
    equity
    div%ex-divearns
    NKE20.8%0.06x1.4%feb2dec21
    PAYX34.6%0.00x4.1%jandec21
    INTC24.3%0.05x3.3%feb3jan13
    AAPL35.3%0.00x  jan24
    LRCX30.9%0.01x jan24
    TROW21.8%0.00x1.7%dec28jan24
    VAR28.4%0.03x  jan26
    CHRW44.8%0.00x1.5%dec16jan31
    ENTR21.3%0.00x  jan31
    "M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.
    Other bull plays
    ppspsarmacd obvh-a trend ma20ma50ma200
    AROW
    CVX
    D
    EPD
    FTR*
    MVO*
    NLY
    SO
    Key to other bull plays
    symroedebt/
    equity
    div%ex-divearns
    AROW14.9%0.58x3.6%marjan17
    CVX17.4%0.10x3.3%febjan28
    EPD15.0%1.23x5.7%janjan
    FTR3.8%1.55x8.0%marfeb21
    MVO81.6%0.00x7.0%jan 
    NLY8.2%6.42x15.0%decjan
    SO13.5%1.18x4.8%janjan24
    "M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.
    Bear plays None. Diversification plays
    ppspsarmacd obvh-a trend ma20ma50ma200
    EPI
    EWZ
    FXI
    RSX
    VWO
    Key to diversification plays
    symunderlying
    EPIIndia
    EWZBrazil
    FXIChina
    RSXRussia
    VWOEmerging Markets
    Zombies
    ppspsarmacd obvh-a trend ma20ma50ma200
    AOD*
    FNMA*
    MCO*
    Key to zombies
    symroedebt/
    equity
    div%ex-divearns
    AOD(fund) 11.3m%dec22n/a
    FNMA    feb
    MCO  1.5%febfeb4
    "M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.
    Futures File Potential earnings plays
    symearnings
    CTSHfeb7
    CMGfeb9
    TQNTfeb9
    PCLNfeb14
    AVGOfeb21
    URBNfeb28
    GESmar14
    LULUmar
    Slow Trade Positions
    • Bull: SPY, PAYX.
    Disclaimer
    Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences. The stocks and exchange-traded funds on my Watchlists are instruments that I’m watching. Listing on a Watchlist does not imply that I own the issue.
    Abbreviations:
    • h-a trend - Heikin-Ashi trend.
    • obv - On-Balance Volume.
    • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal.
    • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
    • ma20 - 20-day moving average
    • ma50 - 50-day moving average
    • ma200 - 200-day moving average
    • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
    About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
    • Signal Section:
      • pps, psar, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear.
    • Confirmation Section:
      • obv: green for uptrending, red for downtrending.
      • h-a trend: green for uptrending, red for downtrending.
    • Environment Section:
      • ma20, ma50, ma200: green for above the average, red for below the average.
    About the categories:
    • Earnings plays: I think these are likely to rise sharply on a real or anticipated earnings surprise.
    • Other bull plays: I think these are more likely to rise than fall; excludes earnings plays.
    • Bear plays: I think these are more likely to fall than rise.
    • Diversification plays: These don’t closely track the U.S. markets or are based on currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
    • Zombies: These are failed leftovers from what seemed to be good ideas at the time. They stalk the Watchlist like zombies, tying up resources and frightening small children.

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