Tuesday, December 14, 2010

12/15 Almanac

On Wednesday, Dec. 15: Inflation, industrial production.

There are 3 days before the December options expire, 38 the January and 66 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.1% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.8% in a net move down of 0.06%.

The day's extremes: Open $124.75, high $125.23, low $124.29, close $124.67.

SPY traded below and above the DeMark pivots before closing within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $124.35-$124.88.

In total, 2.7 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchange, unchanged from the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 1.87%, up 1 basis point from the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

The government releases the consumer price index -- inflation numbers -- at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Obviously, inflation or its lack is a big deal. On Tuesday, once again, a single member of the Federal Open Market Committee voted against further expansionary policies out of concern over the risk of inflation, as everyone else voted to continue expansion of concern over the risk of deflaton. Pick your poison.

The industrial production report, which covers not just industry generally but by industrial sector, will be released at 9:15 a.m. It's a measure of how fast the economy is recovering from the unpleasantness of 2008/2009.

Also significant, although less so: A Treasury report on foreign money entering and leaving the U.S. economy at 9 a.m., the housing market index at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Small fry: Mortgage bankers weekly report on applications for home purchase mortgages at 7 a.m. (mortgage bankers are early risers), and the Empire State manufacturing survey, a New York thing but as goes New York, so goes the nation, yes?, at 8:30 a.m.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade January vertical, diagonal, butterfly and calendar spreads, iron condors and covered calls. Also, February straddles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

What I'm looking for:
  • FTR "income play" exit. The stock is ex-dividend and in bear phase, but the price hasn't fallen. The fundamentals are weak. Analysis.
  • INTC re-entry as an earnings play. Analysis.

Click here for stocks on my watchlists.

Good trading!

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