Wednesday, December 15, 2010

12/16 Almanac

On Thursday, Dec. 16: Housing starts, manufacturing.

There are 2 days before the December options expire, 37 the January and 65 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.5% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.8% in a net move down of 0.3%.

The day's extremes: Open $124.44, high $124.93, low $123.89, close $124.10.

SPY traded below and above the DeMark pivots before closing within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $123.48-$124.52.

In total, 3 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchange, 10% more than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 1.98%, up 11 basis points from the prior trading day. (The figures are correct; it's a large jump.)

Econ reports:

The Census Bureau releases its housing starts report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. When the shovel first bites dirt, that's a housing start, and the report is important since that shovelful of dirt echoes through the economy until at last, your friends and neighbors all have jobs. Or, so the theory goes, sort of.

Another potential market mover is the Philadelphia Fed survey of business conditions in the Philly Federal Reserve District. Given the nature of that region's economy, the survey is an accurate indicator the manufacturing sector, hence its importance. As goes Philly, so goes the nation.

Also out, the current account balance of trade report at 8:30 a.m., natural gas inventories at 10:30 a.m., the Fed balance sheet at 4:30 p.m. and the money supply, also at 4:30 p.m.

Treasury will announce results of the 3-month and 6-month bill auctions at 11 a.m.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade January vertical, diagonal, butterfly and calendar spreads, iron condors and covered calls. Also, February straddles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

What I'm looking for:
  • FTR "income play" exit. The stock is ex-dividend and in bear phase, but the price hasn't fallen. The fundamentals are weak. Analysis.
  • INTC re-entry as an earnings play. Analysis.

Click here for stocks on my watchlists.

Good trading!

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