Three signals -- the macd, parabolic sar and Heikin-Ashi candlesticks -- have switched to bear phase.
|ha-trend||pps||psar||macd||pfe trend||pfe loc||ma20||ma50||ma200|
The bull phase now ending (maybe) began with a pps bull phase on Nov. 22, followed two trading days later by phase switches on the Heikin-Ashi and parabolic sar, and eight days later by the macd. Confirmation came on Nov. 26, when the polarized fractal efficiency (pfe) line turned up.
The pps whipsawed one to bear phase for a day, but it was unconfirmed by the pfe.
So, in calculating bull-phase results for the pps, parabolic sar and Heikin-Ashi, the starting point is Nov. 26, and the bull phase resulted in a 3.4% price inrease. (I'm pretending for the sake of argument that the pps switched phase today.)
For the macd, the confirmed phase change came on Dec. 3, the price increased by 2.1%.
For me as a trader, the key fact from this chart is the lack of bearish confirmation from the polarized fractal efficiency line. The pfe is at 108 plus change, trending sideways. A high pfe suggests that the price finds easier movement to the upside, but the level also suggests that most of the upside potential has been exhausted.
The price has retreated from a three-year swing high set last Wednesday. To the downside, the 20-day and 50-day moving averages provide close support, preceded by the swing low that marked the start of the most recent upswing.
- $54.96, +0.8% (swing high)
- $54.50 --- You are here.
- $54.08, -0.8% (20-day moving average)
- $52.84, -3.1% (50-day moving average)
- $51.88, -4.8% (recent swing low)
I don't plan to trade this week -- my theory is that during this low volume period between Christmas and New Year's Day, the interns are in charge, sailing empty pizza boxes down the corridors of Wall Street and playing endearing pranks: "Hey! Dude! Let's drive down the Qs!!"
But in any case, I think it's premature to short QQQQ.
- h-a trend - Heikin-Ashi trend.
- pps - Person's Proprietary Signal.
- pfe trend - Trend of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
- pfe loc - Location of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
- psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
- ma20 - 20-day moving average
- ma50 - 50-day moving average
- ma200 - 200-day moving average
- macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
- Signal Section:
- h-a trend: green for two up candles, red for two down candles, yellow for one of either.
- pps, psar, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear.
- Confirmation Section:
- pfe trend: green for uptrending, red for downtrending, yellow for no trend.
- pfe loc: location of the pfe - green for above 50, light green for zero to 50, orange for below zero to -50, red for below -50.
- Environment Section:
- ma20, ma50, ma200: green for above the average, red for below the average.
|pfe loc||above +50|
|0 to +50|
|-1 to -50|
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.