Wednesday, December 22, 2010

12/23 Almanac

On Thursday, Dec. 23: Durable goods, savings rate

There are 30 days before the January options expire, 58 the February and 86 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.3% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.3% in a net move up of 0.2%.

The day's extremes: Open $125.48, high $125.82, low $124.41, close $125.78.

SPY traded closed above the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $125.60-$126.01.

In total, 2.4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchange, 3% more than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.03%, up three basis points from the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

The econ report machine wraps up before Christmas with two potential market-movers: Durable goods orders and personal income and outlays, both at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

The durable goods report is important because it shows the degree of confidence in the future course of the economy; if you're going to spend big money on something that you'll use for a long time, you need to be confident that you can afford to spend the money on something other than short-term necessities, such as food, shelter, cable TV.

Personal income and outlays is another window into the mindset of what capitalists like to call "consumers". That's a term of art for we the people, as in the American middle class, workers, citizens, folks. Subtract outlays from income, and you get the savings rate. The higher the percentage of money that goes into savings, the less there is to shop our way out of the post-recession blues.

Important but less-than-blockbuster reports: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., consumer sentiment at 9:55 a.m., new home sales at 10 a.m. and natural gas inventories at 10:30 a.m.

The Fed will release its balance sheet and money supply numbers at 4:30 p.m.

Treasury will announce auctions results for the 3-month and 6-month bills and the 2-year, 5-year and 7-year notes at 11 a.m.

The markets are closed on Friday for Christmas.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade January vertical, diagonal, butterfly and calendar spreads, iron condors and covered calls. Also, March straddles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

What I'm looking for:
  • INTC re-entry as an earnings play. Analysis.

Click here for stocks on my watchlists.

Good trading!

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