On Monday, Jan. 3: Manufacturing index.
There are 19 days before the January options expire, 47 the February and 75 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
Friday, December 31, 2010
12/31 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- APPL to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps); unconfirmed.
- PAYX bear phase on parabolic sar is confirmed.
- VAR bear phase on pps confirmed.
- Diversification plays:
- China to bull phase on pps, parabolic sar; confirmed (FXI).
- Zombies:
- FNMA to bear phase on the macd; unconfirmed.
- MCO's polarized fractal efficiency (pfe) line turns up.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
12/31 Morningline
- Fear index to bull phase on the parabolic sar; confirmed (VIX).
- Treasury long-term bonds whipsaw to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps); confirmed (TLT).
- Crude oil to bear phase on the macd; unconfirmed (USO).
Stocks and Rates
| ha-trend | pps | psar | macd | pfe trend | pfe loc | ma20 | ma50 | ma200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | |||||||||||
| QQQQ | |||||||||||
| VIX | |||||||||||
| TLT | |||||||||||
| JNK |
Below, tangibles, and global indicators.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
12/31 Almanac
On Friday, Dec. 31: No econ reports, bonds close early, stocks don't.
There are 22 days before the January options expire, 50 the February and 78 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 22 days before the January options expire, 50 the February and 78 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
12/30 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- AAPL to bear phase on the macd; unconfirmed.
- CHRW whipsaws back to bull phase on the parabolic sar; confirmed.
- ENTR bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) ghosts away, leaving stock in confirmed bull phase.
- INTC to pps bull phase; unconfirmed.
- Other bull plays:
- AROW to pps bear phase; confirmed.
- NLY's polarized fractal efficiency (pfe) line turns down, confirming bear phase on three signals.
- Diversification plays:
- Brazil to bull phase on parabolic sar, macd; confirmed (EWZ)
- China to bull phase on the macd; confirmed (FXI).
- Emerging markets to bull phase on the macd; confirmed (VWO).
- Zombies:
- FNMA to bear phase on the parabolic sar; unconfirmed.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
12/30 Morningline
- S&P 500 to bear phase on the macd; unconfirmed (SPY).
- Fear index's polarized fractal efficiency (pfe) line turns up, confirming bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), macd (VIX).
- Corporate high-yield debt to bear phase on the macd a day after etf goes ex-dividend; confirmed (JNK).
- Crude oil to bear phase on the pps; unconfirmed (USO).
- Gold's pfe pushes above zero (GLD).
- Euro to pps bull phase in dollar trading; confirmed (EUR/USD).
- Emerging market's to macd bull phase, confirmed, as pfe pushes above zero (EEM).
Stocks and Rates
| ha-trend | pps | psar | macd | pfe trend | pfe loc | ma20 | ma50 | ma200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | |||||||||||
| QQQQ | |||||||||||
| VIX | |||||||||||
| TLT | |||||||||||
| JNK |
Below, tangibles, and global indicators.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
12/30 Almanac
On Thursday, Dec. 30: Weekly jobless claims, pending home sales.
There are 23 days before the January options expire, 51 the February and 79 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 23 days before the January options expire, 51 the February and 79 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
12/29 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- CHRW to bear phase on the parabolic sar, unconfirmed, and to bull phase on the Heikin-Ashi, confirmed.
- ENTR to bear phase on the macd, unconfirmed.
- LRCX to bull phase on the Heikin-Ashi, confirmed.
- TROW to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), unconfirmed.
- VAR to bear phase on the pps, macd, unconfirmed.
- Other bull plays:
- AROW pfe line drops below 50, confirming bear phase on the Heikin-Ashi, parabolic sar and macd.
- EPD pfe line reverses and tops 50, confirming bull phase on the Heikin-Ashi, pps, parabolic sar and macd.
- Diversification plays:
- India whipsaws back to bull phase on the pps, confirmed (EPI).
- Brazil to pps bull phase, unconfirmed (EWZ).
- China pfe line switches to uptrend, tops -50 but confirms nothing, since all signals are in bear phase (FXI).
- VWO whipsaws to bull phase on the pps, confirmed; third whipsaw in six trading days.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
12/29 Forex
- No new phase changes on the 11 currency pairs that I follow.
- USD/CAD: Polarized fractal efficiency (pfe) line crosses below zero.
- AUD/JPY: Pfe line reverses into an uptrend, crosses above 50.
| pps | pfe trend | pfe loc | target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | US$1.298 | |||
| AUD/USD | US$1.019 | |||
| USD/CAD | C$1.002 | |||
| USD/JPY | ¥82.0 | |||
| GBP/CHF | SF1.440 | |||
| GBP/USD | US$1.524 | |||
| EUR/JPY | ¥107.0 | |||
| AUD/JPY | ¥82.8 | |||
| USD/CHF | SF0.939 | |||
| NZD/USD | US$0.729 | |||
| USD/MXN | M$12.212 |
12/29 Morningline
- Fear index polarized fractal efficiency (pfe) line reverses to downtrend; confirms parabolic sar bear phase, although other signals remain bulish (VIX).
- Treasury long-term bonds to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps); unconfirmed (TLT).
- Corporate high-yield debt to bear phase on the pps; confirmed (JNK).
- TLT, JNK may have gone ex-dividend today, but the funds' managers haven't posted a schedule specifying Dec. 29. The interns at State Street Global Advisers, clearly, haven't been doing their job. Bad interns! Bad!
- Gold to bull phase on the macd; confirmed (GLD).
- Emerging markets to bull phase on the Heikin-Ashi; confirmed (EEM).
Stocks and Rates
| ha-trend | pps | psar | macd | pfe trend | pfe loc | ma20 | ma50 | ma200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | |||||||||||
| QQQQ | |||||||||||
| VIX | |||||||||||
| TLT | |||||||||||
| JNK |
Below, tangibles, and global indicators.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
12/29 Almanac
On Wednesday, Dec. 29: Petroleum inventory.
There are 24 days before the January options expire, 52 the February and 80 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 24 days before the January options expire, 52 the February and 80 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
Parking Money
Perhaps some traders can actively manage huge amounts of cash in short-term positions. I'm not one of them.
The span of control is just too large for me to properly manage.
My strategy, instead, is to park 80% of my capital in long-term positions -- slow trades -- and use the remaining 20% for positions that last from days to weeks.
But, as I touched on in my "Myth of the Income Play" essay, good parking places for cash are hard to come by.
I've been scrolling through bonds, and they don't meet my basic requirements: Little chance of default by the issuer and a return in excess of projected inflation, now running around 2%. Oh, and less than a year to go before maturity, so I'm guaranteed to get my capital back pretty quickly, whatever the Federal Reserve does to interest rates.
So, having found dividend-paying stocks and bonds both to be wanting, I now turn to very slow trades on exchange-traded funds, the bigger the better. And none are bigger, in terms of volume, than SPY, which tracks the S&P 500.
The span of control is just too large for me to properly manage.
My strategy, instead, is to park 80% of my capital in long-term positions -- slow trades -- and use the remaining 20% for positions that last from days to weeks.
But, as I touched on in my "Myth of the Income Play" essay, good parking places for cash are hard to come by.
I've been scrolling through bonds, and they don't meet my basic requirements: Little chance of default by the issuer and a return in excess of projected inflation, now running around 2%. Oh, and less than a year to go before maturity, so I'm guaranteed to get my capital back pretty quickly, whatever the Federal Reserve does to interest rates.
So, having found dividend-paying stocks and bonds both to be wanting, I now turn to very slow trades on exchange-traded funds, the bigger the better. And none are bigger, in terms of volume, than SPY, which tracks the S&P 500.
12/28 Watchlist
Many, many phase changes. I wonder if the light intra-holiday volume is affecting the validity of signals, increasing the chances of a false phase change? In theory, it should have an impact, since technical analysis is like public opinion polling: The greater the universe polled (the greater the number of traders), the more representative the results.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
- Earnings plays:
- AAPL to bull phase on the macd; confirmed.
- CHRW to bear phase on the macd; unconfirmed.
- ENTR bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) ghosted away intraday on Monday, returns today; unconfirmed.
- LRCX remains in pps bull phase after Monday's bull phase ghosts away.
- TROW to bear phase on the macd; unconfirmed.
- VAR to bull phase on the Heikin-Ashi; confirmed.
- Other bull plays:
- AROW to bear phase on the parabolic sar, Heikin-Ashi; unconfirmed.
- D to bear phase on the Heikin-Ashi.
- EPD polarized fractal efficiency (pfe) line turns down.
- Diversification plays:
- India to bear phase on the pse, Heikin-Ashi; unconfirmed (EPI).
- Russia to bear phase on the macd; unconfirmed (RSX).
- Zombies:
- AOD to bull phase on the Heikin-Ashi; confirmed.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
12/28 Forex
12/28 Morningline
- Nasdaq 100 bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) ghosts away; parabolic sar, macd remain bearish and unconfirmed (QQQQ).
- Fear index to bull phase on the macd; confirmed (VIX).
- Treasury long-term bonds bear phase on the parabolic sar ghosts, leaving indicator in bull phase, confirmed, on all signals except the Heikin-Ashi (TLT).
- Gold to bull phase on the pps; confirmed (GLD).
- Euro to bull phase on the Heikin-Ashi in dollar trading; unconfirmed (EUR/USD).
Stocks and Rates
| ha-trend | pps | psar | macd | pfe trend | pfe loc | ma20 | ma50 | ma200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | |||||||||||
| QQQQ | |||||||||||
| VIX | |||||||||||
| TLT | |||||||||||
| JNK |
Below, tangibles, and global indicators.
Monday, December 27, 2010
12/28 Almanac
On Tuesday, Dec. 28: Home price index, consumer confidence.
There are 25 days before the January options expire, 53 the February and 81 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 25 days before the January options expire, 53 the February and 81 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
QQQQ Watch
The Person's Proprietary Signal bear phase on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) exchange-traded fund has ghosted away, as has the polarized fractal efficiency confirmation. The hills may well be forever, but signals are not, at least prior to the end of the trading day.
Three signals -- the macd, parabolic sar and Heikin-Ashi candlesticks -- have switched to bear phase.
Three signals -- the macd, parabolic sar and Heikin-Ashi candlesticks -- have switched to bear phase.
| ha-trend | pps | psar | macd | pfe trend | pfe loc | ma20 | ma50 | ma200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQQ $54.50 |
12/27 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- ENTR to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps); unconfirmed.
- LRCX to bear phase on three signals; confirmed.
- PAYX to bear phase on parabolic sar, macd; unconfirmed.
- Zombies:
- AOD to bull phase on the macd; confirmed.
- FNMA to bear phase on the pps; unconfirmed.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
12/27 Morningline
- Nasdaq 100 to bear phase on four signals; confirmed (QQQQ).
- Fear index to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps); confirmed (VIX).
- Treasury high-yield debt to bear phase on the Heikin-Ashi; confirmed (TLT).
- Emerging markets to bear phase on the macd; confirmed; Heikin-Ashi to neutral (EEM).
Stocks and Rates
| ha-trend | pps | psar | macd | pfe trend | pfe loc | ma20 | ma50 | ma200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | |||||||||||
| QQQQ | |||||||||||
| VIX | |||||||||||
| TLT | |||||||||||
| JNK |
Below, tangibles, and global indicators.
Weekend Posts
Two posts over the long holiday weekend:
Fractalicious is a test run of the changes to my analytical methods, using the 25 top-volume exchange-traded funds.
Weeklies is my regular slow-trading analysis, using the new methods.
Fractalicious is a test run of the changes to my analytical methods, using the 25 top-volume exchange-traded funds.
Weeklies is my regular slow-trading analysis, using the new methods.
Analysis Changes
I've made a change in the confirmation block of my analysis, replacing on-balance volume (obv) with the polarized fractal efficiency (pfe) technical tool.
The pfe uses the fractal math of Benoit Mandelbrot to measure how efficiently move between levels. The higher the efficiency, the more directional the price trend.
The pfe uses the fractal math of Benoit Mandelbrot to measure how efficiently move between levels. The higher the efficiency, the more directional the price trend.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Weeklies
- Corporate high-yield debt to bull phase; unconfirmed (JNK).
- AUD/USD to bull phase; confirmed (preceding bear phase was never confirmed).
- INTC to bear phase; unconfirmed.
- Awaiting confirmation
- Bull: JNK
- Bear: INTC
My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting.
Indicators
Stocks and Rates
| pps | pfe trend | pfe loc | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $110.37 sep6 | $125.04 | |||
| QQQQ | $45.82 sep6 | $55.52 | |||
| VIX | $18.80 dec6 | $15.63 | |||
| TLT | $105.09 sep6 | $89.71 | |||
| JNK | $40.17 dec20 | $41.95. |
Friday, December 24, 2010
12/24 Forex
(Re-posted to CORRECT the "Confirmed, Greatest Potential" list, add USD/CAD as unconfirmed.)
I've converted my forex analysis to use the polarized fractal efficiency tool as confirmation of the Person's Proprietary Signal phase switches. See the trading rules below.
I've converted my forex analysis to use the polarized fractal efficiency tool as confirmation of the Person's Proprietary Signal phase switches. See the trading rules below.
- Confirmed, Greatest Potential
- Bull: None.
- Bear: None.
- Unconfirmed
- Bull: NZD/USD.
- Bear: USD/CAD.
- New Phase Changes
- To bull phase: None.
- To bear phase: None.
| pps | pfe trend | pfe loc | target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | US$1.305 | |||
| AUD/USD | US$1.011 | |||
| USD/CAD | C$1.004 | |||
| EUR/JPY | ¥107.5 | |||
| USD/JPY | ¥80.4 | |||
| USD/CHF | SF0.940 | |||
| GBP/USD | US$1.518 | |||
| NZD/USD | US$0.751 | |||
| GBP/CHF | SF1.454 | |||
| AUD/JPY | ¥82.5 | |||
| USD/MXN | M$12.257 |
Fractalicious
Fractalicious reports on a new analytical set that I'm working with. It is based on the tried-and-true Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) and its association Person's Pivots. The difference is in the confirming signal. It is called the polarized fractal efficiency signal.
This is a relatively new technical tool, based on fractal math. Investopedia has only a cursory explanation. Wikipedia is silent on the subject. ThinkOrSwim has a fuller explanation.
See the Analytical Tools section, below, for a description of the signals, and the Trading Rules section for my first stab at trying to use this analytical combo.
Top-Volume ETFs
Volume sort as of Dec. 23, 2010
My holdings are marked with as asterisk (*).
This is a relatively new technical tool, based on fractal math. Investopedia has only a cursory explanation. Wikipedia is silent on the subject. ThinkOrSwim has a fuller explanation.
See the Analytical Tools section, below, for a description of the signals, and the Trading Rules section for my first stab at trying to use this analytical combo.
- Greatest Potential
- Bull: EEM, IYR.
- Bear: None.
- Changes
- To bull phase: None.
- To bear phase: None.
Top-Volume ETFs
Volume sort as of Dec. 23, 2010
My holdings are marked with as asterisk (*).
| pps | pfe trend | pfe loc | target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY* | $28.20 | |||
| XLF | $16.06 | |||
| EEM | $47.02 | |||
| IWM | $79.02 | |||
| QQQQ | $55.14 | |||
| UNG | $5.09 | |||
| FXI | $41.26 | |||
| SLV | $28.61 | |||
| EFA | $56.98 | |||
| VWO | $46.75 | |||
| GLD | $130.41 | |||
| EWJ | $10.95 | |||
| EWT | $14.49 | |||
| GDX | $57.35 | |||
| EWZ | $73.49 | |||
| TLT | $94.69 | |||
| XRT | $48.58 | |||
| IYR | $55.05 | |||
| UUP | $23.54 | |||
| XLE | $67.76 | |||
| USO | $39.56 | |||
| XLI | $35.02 | |||
| XLB | $38.15 | |||
| GDXJ | $36.44 | |||
| DIA | $115.96 |
Thursday, December 23, 2010
12/27 Almanac
On Friday, Dec. 24: All markets are closed. No econ reports.
On Monday, Dec. 27: Treasury auction announcement.
There are 26 days before the January options expire, 54 the February and 82 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
On Monday, Dec. 27: Treasury auction announcement.
There are 26 days before the January options expire, 54 the February and 82 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
12/23 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- AAPL to bull phase on the macd.
- Other bull plays:
- AROW to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), parabolic sar.
- EPD turns bullish on the macd.
- All NLY signals move to bear phase on 64¢ ex-dividend; price gaps, trading down 55¢.
- Zombies:
- AOD to bear phase on the macd.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
12/23 Forex
- New Zealand dollar to bull phase against the U.S. dollar (NZD/USD).
- Cable drops through first lower pivot in Swiss franc trading; second pivot now the downside target (GBP/CHF).
| pps | pps open | upper pivot | lower pivot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD US$1.31 | US$1.34 dec15 | US$1.34 | US$1.30 | |
| AUD/USD US$1.00 | US$0.97 dec2 | US$1.01 | US$0.98 | |
| USD/CAD C$1.01 | C$1.01 dec17 | C$1.01 | C$1.00 | |
| USD/JPY ¥83 | ¥84 dec22 | ¥85 | ¥83 | |
| GBP/CHF SF1.48 | SF1.56 nov11 | SF1.54 | SF1.45 | |
| GBP/USD US$1.54 | US$1.58 dec15 | US$1.58 | US$1.52 | |
| EUR/JPY ¥109 | ¥111 dec8 | ¥113 | ¥110 | |
| AUD/JPY ¥83 | ¥81 dec2 | ¥84 | ¥82 | |
| USD/CHFSF0.96 | SF1.00 dec2 | SF0.98 | SF0.94 | |
| NZD/USD US$0.75 | US$0.74 dec23 | US$0.75 | US$0.74 | USD/MXN M$12.32 | M$12.41 dec21 | M$12.48 | M$12.26 |
12/23 Morningline
- S&P 500 bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) ghosts away; remains in bull phase (SPY).
- Opposite, the fear index, pps bull phase ghosts, still in bear phase (VIX).
- And the parabolic sar bull phase on Treasury high-yield bonds ghosts back to bear phase (TLT).
- It's a Pac-Man Market! Too Many Ghosts!
- Crude oil to bull phase on the parabolic sar (USO).
- Dollar to bear phase on the parabolic sar in trading against the yen (USD/JPY).
Stocks and Rates
| pps | psar | macd | obv | h-a trend | ma20 | ma50 | ma200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | ||||||||||
| QQQQ | ||||||||||
| VIX | ||||||||||
| TLT | ||||||||||
| JNK |
Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
12/23 Almanac
On Thursday, Dec. 23: Durable goods, savings rate
There are 30 days before the January options expire, 58 the February and 86 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 30 days before the January options expire, 58 the February and 86 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
12/22 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- AAPL to bull phase on the parabolic sar, macd.
- ENTR to psar bull phase.
- LRCX to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps).
- Other bull plays:
- EPD to bull phase on the parabolic sar, macd.
- Diversification plays:
- China to pps bull phase (FXI).
- Emerging markets back to bear phase on all principal signalers (VWO).
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
12/22 Forex
- Some ghastly nonsense with the dollar against the yen: Tuesday's bear phase ghosts away, only to reappear today.
| pps | pps open | upper pivot | lower pivot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD US$1.31 | US$1.34 dec15 | US$1.34 | US$1.30 | |
| AUD/USD US$1.00 | US$0.97 dec2 | US$1.01 | US$0.98 | |
| USD/CAD C$1.02 | C$1.01 dec17 | C$1.01 | C$1.00 | |
| USD/JPY ¥84 | ¥84 dec22 | ¥85 | ¥83 | |
| GBP/CHF SF1.47 | SF1.56 nov11 | SF1.54 | SF1.52 | |
| GBP/USD US$1.54 | US$1.58 dec15 | US$1.58 | US$1.52 | |
| EUR/JPY ¥109 | ¥111 dec8 | ¥113 | ¥110 | |
| AUD/JPY ¥83 | ¥81 dec2 | ¥84 | ¥82 | |
| USD/CHFSF0.96 | SF1.00 dec2 | SF0.98 | SF0.94 | |
| NZD/USD US$0.74 | US$0.76 dec8 | US$0.75 | US$0.74 | USD/MXN M$12.35 | M$12.41 dec21 | M$12.48 | M$12.26 |
12/22 Morningline
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
12/22 Almanac
On Wednesday, Dec. 22: GDP, existing home sales.
There are 31 days before the January options expire, 59 the February and 87 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 31 days before the January options expire, 59 the February and 87 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
FTR Watch
I've closed my position in Frontier Communications Corp. (FTR) for reasons outlined in my Dec. 17 posting and update.
12/21 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- TROW flips back to bull phase on the macd.
- Other bull plays:
- NLY flips back to bull phase on the parabolic sar, macd.
- Diversification plays:
- Emerging markets (VWO) to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps).
- Zombies:
- AOD to bull phase on the macd.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
12/21 Forex
- U.S. dollar moves to bear phase in trading against the yen and the peso (USD/JPY, USD/MXN).
| pps | pps open | upper pivot | lower pivot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD US$1.31 | US$1.34 dec15 | US$1.34 | US$1.30 | |
| AUD/USD US$1.00 | US$0.97 dec2 | US$1.01 | US$0.98 | |
| USD/CAD C$1.02 | C$1.01 dec17 | C$1.01 | C$1.00 | |
| USD/JPY ¥84 | ¥84 dec21 | ¥85 | ¥83 | |
| GBP/CHF SF1.49 | SF1.56 nov11 | SF1.54 | SF1.52 | |
| GBP/USD US$1.55 | US$1.58 dec15 | US$1.58 | US$1.52 | |
| EUR/JPY ¥110 | ¥111 dec8 | ¥113 | ¥110 | |
| AUD/JPY ¥83 | ¥81 dec2 | ¥84 | ¥82 | |
| USD/CHFSF0.96 | SF1.00 dec2 | SF0.98 | SF0.94 | |
| NZD/USD US$0.74 | US$0.76 dec8 | US$0.75 | US$0.74 | USD/MXN M$12.37 | M$12.41 dec21 | M$12.48 | M$12.26 |
12/21 Morningline
- Treasury long-term debt to bull phase on the macd (TLT).
- Crude oil to bear phase on the parabolic sar (USO).
- Dollar to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) in trading against the yen (USD/JPY).
Stocks and Rates
| pps | psar | macd | obv | h-a trend | ma20 | ma50 | ma200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | ||||||||||
| QQQQ | ||||||||||
| VIX | ||||||||||
| TLT | ||||||||||
| JNK |
Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.
Monday, December 20, 2010
12/21 Almanac
On Tuesday, Dec. 21: Weekly retail reports.
There are 32 days before the January options expire, 60 the February and 88 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 32 days before the January options expire, 60 the February and 88 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
SO Watch
The Southern Company (SO) moved to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), the 12th phase reversal in the past three months. Unlike past instances, the phase switch this time is accompanied by a strong rise in on-balance volume, exceeding the most recent highs and reaching a level that has been touched five times and exceeded once in the three-month period.
| pps | psar | macd | obv | h-a trend | ma20 | ma50 | ma200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SO $38.30 |
12/20 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- AAPL to bear phase on the parabolic sar.
- ENTR in bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) as Friday's bear phase ghosts away.
- TROW to bear phase on the macd.
- VAR to bull phase on the macd.
- Other bull plays:
- AROW to bear phase on the pps, parabolic sar
- FTR whipsaws back to pps bear phase.
- MVO ghosts back to pps bull phase.
- NLY moves to pps bull phase; four phase changes in 10 trading days.
- SO to bull phase on the pps, macd.
- Zombies:
- AOD to pps bull phase.
- FNMA to bull phase on the pps, parabolic sar, macd.
- MCO to bear phase on the parabolic sar.
12/20 Watchlist Delayed
The Watchlist will be filed late today, most likely after 3 p.m. Eastern. Click here for Friday's Watchlist.
12/20 Forex
- U.S. dollar to bull phase against the Loonie (USD/CAD).
| pps | pps open | upper pivot | lower pivot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD US$1.32 | US$1.34 dec15 | US$1.34 | US$1.30 | |
| AUD/USD US$0.99 | US$0.97 dec2 | US$1.01 | US$0.98 | |
| USD/CAD C$1.01 | C$1.01 dec17 | C$1.01 | C$1.00 | |
| USD/JPY ¥84 | ¥83 dec8 | ¥85 | ¥83 | |
| GBP/CHF SF1.50 | SF1.56 nov11 | SF1.54 | SF1.52 | |
| GBP/USD US$1.56 | US$1.58 dec15 | US$1.58 | US$1.52 | |
| EUR/JPY ¥110 | ¥111 dec8 | ¥113 | ¥110 | |
| AUD/JPY ¥83 | ¥81 dec2 | ¥84 | ¥82 | |
| USD/CHFSF0.96 | SF1.00 dec2 | SF0.98 | SF0.94 | |
| NZD/USD US$0.74 | US$0.76 dec8 | US$0.75 | US$0.74 | USD/MXN M$12.41 | M$12.39 dec14 | M$12.48 | M$12.26 |
12/20 Morningline
SNDK Watch
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Weeklies
- U.S. dollar to bear phase against the Swiss franc (USD/CHF).
- New stocks added to the Earnings Play section of the Watchlist.
- Zombie MCO to bear phase.
My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting.
Indicators
Stocks and Rates
| pps | pps open | target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $110.37 sep6 | $125.04 | |
| QQQQ | $45.82 sep6 | $55.52 | |
| VIX | $18.80 dec6 | $15.63 | |
| TLT | $105.09 sep6 | $89.71 | |
| JNK | $40.31 nov22 | $39.19. |
Friday, December 17, 2010
12/20 Almanac
On Monday, Dec. 20: No econ reports.
There are 33 days before the January options expire, 61 the February and 89 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 33 days before the January options expire, 61 the February and 89 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
FTR Update
Frontier Communications Corp. (FTR) continues to hold at the 20-day moving average, $9.26, or above.
The analyst downgrade that prompted the return to bear phase, discussed in this morning's post, isn't all that terrible.
The analyst downgrade that prompted the return to bear phase, discussed in this morning's post, isn't all that terrible.
FTR Watch
Frontier Communications Corp. (FTR) moved to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) after an analyst downgrade. The price decline stopped at the 20-day moving average and has remained within the range of the last nine trading days.
FTR on Thursday had moved to bull phase, so today's switch is a genuine whipsaw severe enough to produce trader whiplash.
FTR on Thursday had moved to bull phase, so today's switch is a genuine whipsaw severe enough to produce trader whiplash.
| pps | psar | macd | obv | h-a trend | ma20 | ma50 | ma200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTR $9.27 |
ENTR Watch
Home-entertainment electronics company Entropic Communications Inc. (ENTR), added this week to the earnings-play list, has moved to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) and the parabolic sar with a decline below the trading range of the last three days. Earnings will be announced on Jan. 31.
| pps | psar | macd | obv | h-a trend | ma20 | ma50 | ma200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENTR $10.88 |
12/17 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- AAPL to bear phase on the macd.
- ENTR to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), parabolic sar.
- VAR to bullp hae on the pps.
- PIR removed from the Watchlist. Seeing Thursday's posting.
- Other bull plays:
- D to bull phase on the pps; unconfirmed by on-balance volume.
- EPD in bear phase on the pps.
- FTR moves solidly to bull phase on the pps after two days of ghosting; unconfirmed by on-balance volume.
- MVO to bear phase on the pps.
- Diversification plays:
- Brazil to bear phase on the parabolic sar (EWZ).
- Zombies:
- MCO to bear phase on the macd.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
12/17 Forex
- Euro to bear phase against the yen, but it is ghosting (EUR/JPY).
| pps | pps open | upper pivot | lower pivot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD US$1.32 | US$1.34 dec15 | US$1.34 | US$1.30 | |
| AUD/USD US$0.99 | US$0.97 dec2 | US$1.01 | US$0.97 | |
| USD/CAD C$1.01 | C$1.02 dec2 | C$1.01 | C$1.00 | |
| USD/JPY ¥84 | ¥83 dec8 | ¥85 | ¥83 | |
| GBP/CHF SF1.50 | SF1.56 nov11 | SF1.56 | SF1.52 | |
| GBP/USD US$1.55 | US$1.58 dec15 | US$1.60 | US$1.54 | |
| EUR/JPY ¥111 | ¥111 dec8 | ¥112 | ¥109 | |
| AUD/JPY ¥83 | ¥81 dec2 | ¥84 | ¥82 | |
| USD/CHFSF0.97 | SF1.00 dec2 | SF0.99 | SF0.96 | |
| NZD/USD US$0.74 | US$0.76 dec8 | US$0.76 | US$0.73 | USD/MXN M$12.44 | M$12.39 dec14 | M$12.64 | M$12.34 |
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