Sunday, February 15, 2015

The Week Ahead: Housing starts, producer prices, industry, FOMC minutes

Five economic releases dominate a week shortened by a holiday:

On Wednesday, Housing starts and producer prices, both at 8:30 a.m. New York time, industrial production at 9:15 a.m. and the Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the Jan. 28 meeting at 2 p.m.

On Thursday, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey of business conditions in the mid-Atlantic region at 10 a.m.

U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the Presidents's Day holiday. Markets in the forex centers London, Tokyo and Sydney will be trading.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Building permits for new private homes from the housing starts report, at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday.

The index of leading indicators, a compilation of leading indicators into a single number, is not in itself a leading indicator, although I find it useful as an economic "You Are Here". It will be published Thursday at 10 a.m.

Other items of interest:

Tuesday: The Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m., the Home Builders' housing market index at 10 a.m. and the Treasury Department's international capital report at 4 p.m.

Thursday: The Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index flash release at 9:45 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Tuesday 11 a.m., auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Announcement  Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 7-year: Announcement  Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 10-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 30-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.


Fed Gov. Jerome Powell, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, speaks on Financial Institutions, Financial Markets and Financial Stability at the New York University Stern School of Business, on Thursday at 5 p.m.d

Philadelphia Fed Pres. Charles Plosser, who is unconnected with the FOMC this year, makes a public appearance on Tuesday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 2,457 stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades, I'm trading March options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading June options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 15, 2015


My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here. My volatility trading rules can be read here.


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