On Friday, Feb. 13:
Of 2,457 stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, 113 broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 97 to the upside and 15 to the downside.
Fourteen symbols survived initial screening, all having broken out to the upside. Two signals occurred on the first trading day after earnings were announced and three on ex-dividend day, and so are handled under special rules.
Three symbols appearing on my supplemental list of innovative companies gave bull signals and also met my earnings announcement rules.
There a
I shall do further analysis on Tuesday, Feb. 17.
The current earnings season ends Feb. 26. The next season begins April 8 with the announcement by AA and runs six weeks. Under the exclusion rule that forbids me from opening new positions in stocks within 30 days of an earnings announcement, increasing numbers of symbols will be removed from my prospective trades list during initial screening. The rule doesn't apply to trades under my Volatility Rules.
First-round survivors: Regular rules
The lists are sorted in descending order by average yield. Regular rules means that confirmation will require trading above the 20-day price channel breakout level.
Bull
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Bear
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(bull)
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First-round survivors: Special handling
The lists are sorted in descending order by average yield. Rules for a breakout immediately following an earnings announcement require that confirmation on the following trading day, Reset Day, require that the price be beyond the Reset-Day 20-day price channel. A breakout following a stock going ex-dividend must be confirmed on the fifth trading day after ex-dividend day.
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Potential trades under my Volatility Rules, keyed to events
The dates are those of the events, all of them earns announcements. Events prior to the opening bell are marked "am", during the trading day "mid", and after the closing bell "pm". The lists are sorted in descending order by average volume.
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Methodology
The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.
I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.
For symbols whose odds of success are greater than 50%, I next screen for the absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days.
For bear signals, I also screen to ensure the ability to do a trade because of the presence of options, without yet passing judgment on whether those options are liquid enough to support a trade.
I sort by the results in descending order by the average yield on signals in the direction of the breakout in preparation for the second round of analysis after the opening bell.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 15, 2015
References
My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.
Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. The principal practitioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading.
Several web sites summarize Elliott wave theory, among them, Investopedia, StockCharts and Wikipedia.
Alerts
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.License
All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss
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