Sunday, February 1, 2015

The Week Ahead: Jobs, income, spending, trade, manufacturing

The employment and unemployment stats will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. The all-important numbers inform the Federal Reserve's monetary policy as central bank implements its dual mandate -- controlled inflation and high employment, and politicians reap praise or blame for the headline-generating unemployment percentage.

The jobs report will get a sneak preview with the ADP employment report released Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. by a leading payroll company.

Three other potential market movers punctuate the week: Personal income and outlays on Monday and international trade on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m, and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, also on Thursday, at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Other items of interest:

Monday: The Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m. and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Tuesday:  Motor vehicle sales throughout the day and factory spending at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: The Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 2-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 3-year: Announcement Wednesday 9 a.m.
  • 5-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 7-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 10-year: Announcement Wednesday 9 a.m.

  • 30-year: Announcement Wednesday 9 a.m.

  • None


Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, delivers opening remarks at the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act Outreach Meeting in Dallas, on Wednesday at 10 a.m.

One other FOMC member is speaking: Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart on Friday.

Three FOMC alternates take to the podium: St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Tuesday, Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester on Wednesday and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Thursday.

One other among the Fed glitterati has scheduled a public appearance: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota on Tuesday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 1,269 mid-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades, I'm trading March options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading May options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 1, 2015


My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here. My volatility trading rules can be read here.


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