Sunday, February 8, 2015

The Week Ahead: Retail sales

The Commerce Department publishes the retail sales report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, providing a comprehensive snapshot of economic activity that accounts for two-thirds of gross domestic product.

Consumer willingness to shop 'til they drop will show up here, and if consumers are willing, then can prosperity lag far behind?

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, Friday at 10 a.m. 

Other items of interest:

Tuesday: Job openings and labor turnover, at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p..

Thursday: Business inventories at 10 a.m.

Friday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Treasury Debt


  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • 3-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Fed Gov Jerome Powell delivers the Columbus School of Law's Brendan Brown lecture on Monday at 4 p.m. His topic: "Audit the Fed and Other Proposals".

The deputy director of the Fed's Banking Supervision and Regulation Division, Maryann Hunter, testifies on the subject of community banks before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, on Tuesday at 10 a.m.

Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, makes a public appearance on Tuesday,

One other of the Fed glitterati, not seated on the FOMC in any capacity this year, will speak on Wednesday: Dallas Fed Pres. Richard Fisher.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 1,306 mid-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades, I'm trading March options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading May options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 8, 2015


My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here. My volatility trading rules can be read here.


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