Friday, June 24, 2011

6/27 Almanac

On Monday, June 27: Income, spending and savings.

There are 19 trading days before the July options expire, 54 the August, 82 the September and 117 the October.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 1.2% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.4% in a net move down of 1.1%.

The day's extremes: Open $128.27, high $128.37, low $126.62, close $126.81.

SPY closed below the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $125.84-$127.59.

In total, 4.2 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 37% more than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 1.86%, two basis points lower than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Subtract one from the other, and get savings. All in all, a useful and nifty time series for judging just how nervous people are about their future. Sometimes a market-mover.

Treasury auctions 3- and 6-month bills at 11 a.m., and 2-year notes at 1 p.m.

Two Fedsters at the mic: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota and Kansas City Fed Pres. Tom Hoenig.

Kocherlakota came to the Fed from academia and has a vote in setting monetary policy. He took office under President Obama.

Last year Hoenig -- a child of the Fed -- was the foremost inflation hawk on the Fed’s monetary policy committee. Today, his term expired, he lacks a seat on or a loud voice in policy. He took office under President George H.W. Bush (Dad, not the kid).

Normally, I watch members of the Federal Open Market Committee, such as Kocherlakota, like a hawk. But this close to Fed Chairman Bernanke's news conference, there's little new to say.

Hoenig, although not on the FOMC anymore, is always interesting as an outlier, a corrective to the conventional central-banking wisdom.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive, where it posts transcripts of speeches and testimony within a few days of the event.

As the week marches relentlessly toward Friday, look for consumer confidence on Tuesday, pending home sales on Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday and the manufacturing index on Friday.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade October or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Enjoy the weekend!

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