6/13 Forex

Six new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow, two with strong trends.

Strong-Trend Breakouts

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
DKK/SEK+		25	jun13	Skr1.2229	Skr1.2160	0.0069	0.6%
EUR/SEK+		25	jun13	Skr9.1250	Skr9.0737	0.0521	0.6%

Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

DKK/SEK and EUR/SEK both are contrary to their short carry biases, although the spreads are modest, at about 100 basis points.

Weak-Trend Breakouts

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
EUR/DKK+		23	jun13	Dkr7.4585	Dkr7.4569	0.0016	0.02%
MXN/JPY		15	jun13	¥6.735	¥6.818	0.083	1.2%
NOK/SEK+		16	jun13	Skr1.1269	Skr1.1424	0.0069	0.6%
USD/THB		15	jun13	฿30.385	฿30.291	0.094	0.3%

Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

MXN/JPY and USD/THB are contrary to their carry biases, with spreads of 420 basis points and 300 basis points, respectively.

EUR/DKK and NOK/SEK are carry bias neutral, with spreads of less than 50 basis points.


Key

• phase: Green for a bull-phase breakout, red for a bear phase.
• adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
• bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
• blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
• bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
• atr: The 14-day average true range, in the same currency as the price.
• atr%: The average true range as a percentage of the breakout level, an indicator of volatility that is comparable for all potential trades.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.