Wednesday, June 1, 2011

6/2 Almanac

On Thursday, June 2: Jobless claims, productivity. factory orders

There are 16 trading days before the June options expire, 44 the July, 79 the August and 107 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 2.3% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 2.3% in a net move down of 2.0%.

The day's extremes: Open $134.51, high $134.92, low $131.76, close $131.87.

SPY closed below the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $130.30-$133.34.

In total, 3.3 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 11% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.06%, two basis points lower than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

At this point all roads lead to Friday and the government's unemployment and employment report.

Weekly jobless claims, out at 8:30 a.m., gain an extra power boost when it comes to moving markets. The Monster(.com) employment index out at 6 a.m. gets attention for whatever perceived predictive value it carries.

Even productivity and labor costs, at 8:30 a.m., and factory orders at 10 a.m. will be seen through the lens of Friday's looming unemployment figure.

Only the natural gas report at 10:30 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. will stick to their appropriate sphere, energy, although maybe not. Anything that forecasts higher energy costs ahead has a jobs impact.

Chain stores will be releasing their sales figures throughout the day. No big. We already no that consumers are feeling a bit vulnerable.

The Federal Reserve will top off the day with its balance sheet and money supply numbers, at 4:30 p.m. Also, no big.

Treasury will announce funding needs for upcoming auctions of 3- and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds at 9 a.m., and of 3- and 6-month bills at 11 a.m.

No Fedsters at the rostrum. They will all no doubt be sitting at home in their palatial libraries, sipping brandy, smoking cigars and biting their fingernails as they await the Labor Department's employment figures. (At least, that's how I've always imagined the life of a central banker.)

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive, where it posts transcripts of speeches and testimony within a few days of the event.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade July vertical and calendar spreads, as well as September or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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