Tuesday, June 14, 2011

6/15 Almanac

On Wednesday, June 15: Consumer prices, industrial production.

There are three trading days before the June options expire, 31 the July, 66 the August and 94 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 1.3% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.7% in a net move up of 0.4%.

The day's extremes: Open $128.87, high $129.77, low $128.82, close $129.32.

SPY traded entirely above the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $129.07-$130.02.

In total, 2.6 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 3% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.11%, six basis points higher than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

Two potential bombshell reports on the econ calendar today.

Consumer prices, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, asks: Will inflation risk inspire the Fed to raise interest rates, thereby taking away the punch bowl and spoiling the party for bull-side traders?

Industrial production, at 9:15 a.m., asks: Are America's factories humming and will they hire more people to keep the assembly lines moving and increase corporate profits, thereby making life very happy indeed for bull-side traders?

Since most people play the bull side of things -- think 401(k) and IRA mutual fund and stock positions, where short positions range from maybe difficult to totally impossible and illegal -- these reports can have huge and immediate impacts.

Also out, with a chance of moving the markets:

  • The Empire State manufacturing survey (as goes New York, so goes the nation yada yada yada) at 8:30 a.m.,
  • international capital flows (are foreigners investing here or taking their money home) at 9 a.m.,
  • the housing market index (what do home-builders expect to happen) at 10 a.m.,
  • and petroleum inventories (what's your summer vacation going to cost?) at 10:30 a.m.

And there's more: The early birds at the Mortgage Bankers Association issue their weekly report on purchase applications, a leading indicator for the housing market, at 7 a.m.

No Fedsters on the docket. The Federal Reserve maintains an archive, where it posts transcripts of speeches and testimony within a few days of the event.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade July vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as September or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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