Thursday, June 2, 2011

6/2 Forex

Three new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
jun2 Nkr5.4925 Nkr5.5569 0.0644 1.2%
jun2 zł3.2915 zł3.2475 0.0440 1.3%
jun2 TL2.3011 TL2.2817 0.0194 0.8%
Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

CAD/NOK is aligned with the carry rate, with a 180+ basis point advantage.

The other two breakouts are counter to the carry rate; CHF/PLN has a disadvantage of more than 400 basis points, and EUR/TRY, of more than 700 basis points.


  • phase: Green for a bull-phase breakout, red for a bear phase.
  • adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 30 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 30, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, purple for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
  • blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
  • bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
  • atr: The 14-day average true range, in the same currency as the price.
  • atr%: The average true range as a percentage of the breakout level, an indicator of volatility that is comparable for all potential trades.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

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