Monday, June 20, 2011

6/20 Forex

Two new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow, both with weak trends.

Weak-Trend Breakouts
sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
jun20 ¥84.313 ¥86.313 1.144 1.4%
jun20 Kč6.0315 Kč6.0762 0.0417 0.7%
Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

Both breakouts are contrary to their carry-trade long biases. AUD/JPY has a bullish carry bias of about 480 basis points, and PLN/CZK, of about 325 basis points.


  • phase: Green for a bull-phase breakout, red for a bear phase.
  • adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
  • blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
  • bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
  • atr: The 14-day average true range, in the same currency as the price.
  • atr%: The average true range as a percentage of the breakout level, an indicator of volatility that is comparable for all potential trades.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

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