6/16 Forex

Seven new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow, one with a strong trend.

Strong-Trend Breakouts

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
USD/HKD		30	jun16	HK$7.790	HK$7.785	0.005	0.1%

Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

USD/HKD is slightly bearish on the carry bias, with a 80 basis point skew to the short side. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has set guaranteed exchange limits of US$1 = HK$1.75 to $1.85, so today's rise puts HKD near the upper limit of the range.

Weak-Trend Breakouts

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
CAD/SEK+		24	jun15	Skr6.2545	Skr6.4566	0.774	1.2%
PLN/JPY		13	jun16	¥28.681	¥29.159	0.478	1.7%
SEK/JPY		16	jun15	¥12.566	¥12.769	0.203	1.6%
USD/MXN		20	jun16	Mex$11.9431	Mex$11.8408	0.1023	0.9%
USD/THB		19	jun15	฿30.390	฿30.297	0.093	0.3%
USD/TRY		22	jun16	TL1.6123	TL1.5960	0.0163	1.0%

Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

The weak-trend breakouts are all significantly contrary to the their carry biases.

CAD/HKD and USD/CAD broke below their price channels, but with a declining average directional index disallowing the phase change.

The breakout levels are CAD/HKD: H$7.8931; USD/CAD: C$0.9851. CAD/HKD is contrary to the carry bias. USD/CAD has a very slight bias in the direction of the breakout.


Key

• phase: Green for a bull-phase breakout, red for a bear phase.
• adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
• bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
• blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
• bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
• atr: The 14-day average true range, in the same currency as the price.
• atr%: The average true range as a percentage of the breakout level, an indicator of volatility that is comparable for all potential trades.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.