3/21 Indicators

The fear index or VIX, which tracks S&P 500 volatility, has hit its stop/loss, switching from bull phase to neutral; the near-term phase has turned bearish.

A bearish fear index is bullish for the markets.

The price of corporate high-yield debt, or junk bonds, sees a weakening trend as the near-term phase turns bullish. A higher price for bonds means lower interest rates, suggesting increased confidence in companies' ability to pay off the loans.

Higher gasoline prices is one of the morning's scare headlines, but the crude-oil fund USO suggests that energy costs are weakening. Although the commodity is in bull phase for the longer term, the trend has been weakening more more than 10 days, and the near-term trend has diverged and is in bear phase.

Emerging markets have hit the stop/loss, changing from bear phase to neutral with a weak trend getting weaker.

Stocks

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar
SPY
QQQQ
VIX

Bonds

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar
TLT
JNK

Tangibles

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar
USO
GLD

Global

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar
UUP
EEM

Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 index
SPY - S&P 500 index
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USO - crude oil
UUP - U.S. dollar index
VIX - fear index


Key

• chan: Channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
• adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 30 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 30, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
• traj: Trajectory of the ADX, green for strengthening, red for weakening or yellow for unchanging. Note that if the adx column is orange and the trajectory column is red, then the position must be closed.
• psar: The parabolic sar, either green for bullish or red for bearish.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.


No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.