Wednesday, March 16, 2011

3/16 Bear Watchlist

Four breakouts have been added to the list. They are the palladium, platinum and uranium exchange-traded funds (etf), and the electric utility The Southern Company.

Ford and Freeport-McRan Copper & Gold flip to near-term bull phase, diverging from their price-channel phases.

Alpha Natural Resources, Teck Resources and the U.S./Canadian dollar currency pair hit their stop/losses. The South Korean stocks etf failed under the two-day rule, closing above the breakout point for the two days subsequent to breakout day.

Frontier Communications and VIVUS were zapped by the sudden-death rule, which demands closure of any position whose average directional index (adx) turns down while is is 40 or above.

AFLAC, the Aussie dollar/Japanese yen currency pair and the Mexican stocks etf show momentum strengthening into the 20s on the adx. Google and Las Vegas Sands momentum strengthens into the 30s.

Wal-Mart's momentum weakens into the teens.

Bear Positions
New breakouts: PALL, PPLT, SO and URA.
ANR, TCK, USD/CAD turn neutral upon hitting stop/loss.
EWY to neutral after failing the two-day rule.
FTR, VVUS to neutral under high-adx sudden-death downturn rule.
sym adx traj psar bday blevel bstop 2-day?
AFL       mar11 $54.80 $56.44  
AKAM       feb10 $46.69 $43.95  
AMR       jan20 $7.54 $7.77  
AMZN       mar7 $166.90 $171.91  
ANR       mar10 $51.71 $53.26  
AOD       mar15 $5.77 $5.94
AUD/JPY       $ $  
BBBY       mar8 $46.78 $48.18  
BBY       feb11 $33.40 $34.40  
BK       mar10 $29.31 $30.19  
BRCM       feb18 $41.94 $43.20  
C       mar4 $4.54 $4.68  
CCJ       mar13 $36.95 $38.06  
CREE       mar4 $50.05 $51.55  
CX       feb22 $9.10 $9.37  
DRYS       mar15 $4.61 $4.75
ESRX       mar11 $52.96 $54.55  
ETFC       mar11 $15.27 $15.73  
EWJ       mar14 $10.72 $10.34  
EWW       mar15 $59.10 $60.57
EWY       mar11 $57.17 $58.89
F       jan31 $15.62 $15.15  
FCX       feb22 $52.31 $53.88  
FLEX       mar10 $7.57 $7.86  
FTR       feb23 $9.06 $9.31  
GOOG       mar9 $587.00 $604.61  
IP       mar15 $25.38 $26.14  
JNJ       mar11 $59.36 $60.68
LVS       mar9 $41.87 $43.10  
MGM       mar10 $13.10 $13.49  
MRVL       mar11 $15.65 $16.12  
MSFT       mar1 $26.43 $27.22  
MT       mar15 $33.88 $34.90  
NEM       mar8 $52.69 $54.27  
NOK       feb14 $9.08 $9.35  
NTAP       feb22 $51.76 $53.31  
NZD/USD       mar4 $0.73451 $0.74873  
PALL       mar14 $74.01 $76.23
PPLT       mar15 $169.74 $172.87
RIO       mar8 $67.08 $69.09  
SNDK       mar15 $43.53 $44.84  
SO       mar15 $37.05 $37.89
STT       mar10 $43.45 $44.75  
TCK       mar10 $51.85 $53.35  
TEVA       mar11 $49.01 $50.08  
URA       mar10 $18.94 $19.51  
USD/CAD       feb25 C$0.98150 C$0.99012  
USD/CHF       feb23 SF0.92978 SF0.93922  
USD/JPY       mar14 ¥80.92 ¥83.18  
USD/MXN       mar9 M$11.94057 M$12.1063  
UUP       feb24 $22.13 $22.32  
VNM       feb22 $25.35 $26.11  
VVUS       mar1 $7.27 $6.91  
WMT       feb22 $53.14 $54.73  
XLB       mar15 $37.06 $38.15  
XLK       mar15 $25.05 $25.63  
XRX       mar10 $10.30 $10.61  
Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*).

  • adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 30 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 30, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, purple for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • traj: Trajectory of the ADX, green for strengthening, red for weakening or yellow for unchanging. Note that if the adx column is orange and the trajectory column is red, then the position must be closed.
  • psar: The parabolic sar, either green for bullish or red for bearish.
  • bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
  • blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
  • bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
  • 2-day?: Marked with an "✔" if the two-day rule is in effect. Under the rule, if the price closes below the breakout level on each of the two days following breakout day, then the position must be exited.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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