Tuesday, March 15, 2011

3/15 Bull Watchlist

The consumer discretionary exchange-traded fund (etf) drops below the 20-day price channel into neutral phase. Agilent, the euro against the yen currency pair and Goldcorp hit their stop/losses and will be removed from the bull list.

The funds for silver and crude oil turned near-term bearish, diverging from their price-channel phase.

The trend on Yum! Brands weakened, dropping into the teens on the average directional index (adx).

Bull Positions
XLY to neutral upon dropping below the 20-day channel.
A, EUR/JPY, GG hit stop/loss
sym adx traj psar bday blevel bstop 2-day?
A       mar4 $45.02 $44.06  
DELL       feb16 $14.46 $14.20  
EUR/JPY       mar3 ¥106.815 ¥111.967  
EUR/USD       feb1 $1.37851 $1.35303  
GBP/USD       feb1 $1.60935 $1.58585  
GG       feb28 $47.08 $45.80  
HGSI       mar10 $27.50 $26.79  
JCP       mar10 $37.48 $35.47  
JNPR       feb4 $38.73 $37.57  
LPNT       feb28 $38.77 $37.61  
PBR       feb22 $38.70 $37.54  
S       mar8 $4.69 $4.54  
SLV       feb17 $30.44 $29.53  
TRGT       feb28 $27.97 $27.13  
USO       feb23 $39.48 $38.30  
XLY       feb7 $38.42 $37.74  
YUM*       mar8 $51.54 $50.08  
Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*).

  • adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 30 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 30, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, purple for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • traj: Trajectory of the ADX, green for strengthening, red for weakening or yellow for unchanging. Note that if the adx column is orange and the trajectory column is red, then the position must be closed.
  • psar: The parabolic sar, either green for bullish or red for bearish.
  • bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
  • blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
  • bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
  • 2-day?: Marked with an "✔" if the two-day rule is in effect. Under the rule, if the price closes below the breakout level on each of the two days following breakout day, then the position must be exited.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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