Thursday, March 31, 2011

3/31 Bull Worksheet

Issues in bull phase that presently are not top prospects for new positions in my accounts. (See the Top Prospects posting for issues that I’m considering for new positions.)

  • Recent breakouts: ACAS, FXI, LCUT, REMX, XME, VIA/B.
  • Existing phase added: HP, KRA, PCLN.
  • Promoted to Top Prospects: GNRC, HP, MKTX, VZ.
  • Hit stop/loss (Exit 2): BMY, EMC.
  • Parabolic Sar divergence, taken out of play (Exit 5): LOW.
  • Removed to correct methodology: CSX, YUM.

Not Top
Issues that are not Out of Play but fall short of being Top Prospects.

sym adx traj psar bday blevel bstop 2-day?
ACAS       mar30 $9.70 $9.38
AIRM       mar11 $60.26 $58.03  
BTU       mar18 $70.84 $67.89  
CAP       mar2 $21.29 $21.07  
CAT       mar21 $105.86 $103.58  
CBI       mar18 $38.18 $36.60  
CLH       2010dec2 $75.21 $73.80  
CVI       mar25 $21.68 $20.51  
DORM       mar24 $39.00 $37.33  
EEM       mar30 $48.21 $47.41
EL       mar28 $95.55 $93.26  
EMN       mar24 $97.84 $95.26  
EUR/USD       mar2 $1.38605 $1.37375  
EWA       mar30 $26.35 $25.83
EWY       mar30 $63.73 $62.57
EZA       mar30 $72.63 $70.85
EZPW       mar23 $29.94 $29.97  
FAST       mar25 $63.74 $62.43  
FXI       mar31 $44.85 $44.15
HK       mar17 $22.44 $21.60  
IDX       mar30 $29.43 $28.86
KO       mar30 $65.88 $64.87
KRA       feb28 $33.66 $32.76  
LCUT       mar31 $14.60 $14.15
LPNT       mar30 $39.99 $39.10
NSRGY       mar30 $57.32 $56.47
PBR       feb22 $38.70 $37.81  
PCLN       mar24 $474.74 $462.25  
PM       mar25 $64.74 $63.66  
PVH       mar29 $64.40 $62.05  
REMX       mar31 $25.89 $25.04
SBUX       mar7 $34.03 $33.17  
SLV*       feb17 $30.44 $29.79  
SRCL       mar25 $88.28 $86.22  
SUP       mar16 $21.84 $20.99  
THD       mar29 $65.71 $64.60  
TPX       feb4 $44.95 $43.48  
VIA.B       mar30 $46.65 $45.77
VLO*       mar29 $30.42 $29.22  
WLP       jan10 $61.00 $60.12  
XLE       mar30 $79.62 $77.94
XLP       mar30 $29.96 $29.67
XLV       mar30 $33.23 $32.85
XME       mar31 $74.66 $72.82
XOP       mar30 $63.77 $62.09
XRT       mar30 $50.61 $49.58

Out of Play
Issues whose parabolic sar is in bear phase. If held, under my rules they are sold. If not held, they are not candidates for a new position.

sym adx traj psar bday blevel bstop 2-day?
IPG       feb3 $11.34 $11.03  
LOW       mar8 $26.00 $25.89  
TRIB       mar3 $9.19 $8.84  

Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*).

See the Top Prospects posting for issues evaluated as top prospects, and the Bull Worksheet and Bear Worksheet postings for other evaluations.
  • Top Prospects are issues upon which I would consider opening a new position.
  • Not Top plays are issues that are tradeable under my rules but fail to meet the criteria for Top Picks. It's not against my rules to trade these stocks, but their condition on the chart leaves me unenthusiastic about opening a new position.
  • Out of Play issues aren’t prospects for new positions under my rules because the parabolic sar phase doesn’t match the price-channel phase.

  • adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 30 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 30, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, purple for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • traj: Trajectory of the ADX, green for strengthening, red for weakening or yellow for unchanging. Note that if the adx column is orange and the trajectory column is red, then the position must be closed.
  • psar: The parabolic sar, either green for bullish or red for bearish.
  • bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
  • blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
  • bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
  • 2-day?: Marked with an "✔" if the two-day rule is in effect. Under the rule, if the price closes below the breakout level on each of the two days following breakout day, then the position must be exited.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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