Sunday, March 20, 2011

3/20 Top Prospects

Top Prospects
Issues that are candidates for new positions in my accounts.

Bull Positions
sym adx traj psar bday blevel bstop 2-day?
S       mar8 $4.69 $4.54  

Bear Positions
Added: ENER.
sym adx traj psar bday blevel bstop 2-day?
AMZN       mar7 $166.90 $171.91  
BBY       feb11 $33.40 $34.40  
CCJ       mar13 $36.95 $38.06  
CX       feb22 $9.10 $9.37  
ENER       mar1 $3.78 $3.89  
FLEX       mar10 $7.57 $7.86  
NZD/USD       mar4 $0.73451 $0.74873  
USD/CHF       feb23 SF0.92978 SF0.93922  
USD/JPY       mar14 ¥80.92 ¥83.18  
UUP       feb24 $22.13 $22.32  

Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*).

See the Top Prospects posting for issues evaluated as top prospects, and the Bull Worksheet and Bear Worksheet postings for other evaluations.
  • Top Prospects are issues upon which I would consider opening a new position because they have met these criteria: 1) The average directional index is 20 or above and rising. 2) The price has touched the boundary of the 55-day price channel, in the direction of the trade, at least once within the two most recent trading days (including the current one if the market is open). 3) The price-channel boundary in the direction of the trade has moved in that direction within the past 10 days. 4) The position is no longer subject to the two-day rule (Exit 2).
  • Not So Interesting plays are issues that are tradeable under my rules but fail to meet the criteria for Top Picks. It's not against my rules to trade these stocks, but their condition on the chart leaves me unenthusiastic about opening a new position.
  • Out of Play issues aren’t prospects for new positions under my rules because the parabolic sar phase doesn’t match the price-channel phase.

  • adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 30 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 30, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, purple for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • traj: Trajectory of the ADX, green for strengthening, red for weakening or yellow for unchanging. Note that if the adx column is orange and the trajectory column is red, then the position must be closed.
  • psar: The parabolic sar, either green for bullish or red for bearish.
  • bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
  • blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
  • bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
  • 2-day?: Marked with an "✔" if the two-day rule is in effect. Under the rule, if the price closes below the breakout level on each of the two days following breakout day, then the position must be exited.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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