Wednesday, March 23, 2011

3/23 Bear Worksheet

Issues in bear phase that presently are not top prospects for new positions in my accounts.
(See the Top Prospects posting for issues that I’m considering for new positions.)

  • Recent breakouts: EGPT, as trading resumes after the exchange was closed for two months during the revolution against the Mubarak regime.
  • Moved from Top Prospects to Not So Interesting: ENER, UUP.
  • Put back in play: CX, F, XRX.
  • Hit stop/loss (Exit 2): NEM.
  • Broke out of the 20-day price-channel (Exit 3): FCX.

Not So Interesting
Issues that are not Out of Play but fall short of being Top Prospects.

sym adx traj psar bday blevel bstop 2-day?
AFL       mar11 $54.80 $56.44  
ATVI       feb10 $11.08 $11.33  
BRCM       feb18 $41.94 $43.20  
CX       feb22 $9.10 $9.37  
DRYS       mar15 $4.61 $4.75  
EGPT       mar23 $15.90 $16.38
ENER       mar1 $3.78 $3.89  
ESRX       mar11 $52.96 $54.55  
EWW       mar15 $59.10 $60.57  
F       jan31 $15.62 $15.15  
FDX       feb23 $90.01 $92.71  
FLEX       mar10 $7.57 $7.86  
GM       mar22 $30.65 $31.57
HBC       mar16 $50.59 $52.05  
INTC       mar15 $20.27 $20.80  
JNJ       mar11 $59.36 $60.68  
MGM       mar10 $13.10 $13.49  
NOK       feb14 $9.08 $9.35  
NTAP       feb22 $51.76 $53.31  
PALL       mar14 $74.01 $76.23  
SNDK       mar15 $43.53 $44.84  
SO       mar15 $37.05 $37.89  
TGT       mar18 $50.00 $51.50
URA       mar10 $18.94 $19.51  
USD/CHF       feb23 SF0.92978 SF0.93922  
USD/JPY       mar14 ¥80.92 ¥83.18  
UUP*       feb24 $22.13 $22.32  
VNM       feb22 $25.35 $26.11  
WMT       feb22 $53.14 $54.73  
XLU       mar16 $31.23 $31.96  
XRX       mar10 $10.30 $10.61  

Out of Play
Issues whose parabolic sar is in bear phase. If held, under my rules they are sold. If not held, they are not candidates for a new position.

sym adx traj psar bday blevel bstop 2-day?
AIG       feb23 $39.52 $40.71  
AMR       jan20 $7.54 $7.77  
AUD/JPY       mar15 ¥80.97 ¥83.40  
BBBY       mar8 $46.78 $48.18  
BBY       feb11 $33.40 $34.40  
BK       mar10 $29.31 $30.19  
CCJ       mar13 $36.95 $38.06  
ETFC       mar11 $15.27 $15.73  
GOOG       mar9 $587.00 $604.61  
GS       mar7 $160.12 $164.71  
KGC       feb22 $16.00 $16.48  
LCC       feb22 $9.21 $9.49  
LVS       mar9 $41.87 $43.10  
MRVL       mar11 $15.65 $16.12  
MSFT       mar1 $26.43 $27.22  
NZD/USD       mar4 $0.73451 $0.74873  
PG       mar3 $62.30 $63.70  
RIO       mar8 $67.08 $69.09  
TEVA       mar11 $49.01 $50.08  
XLK       mar15 $25.05 $25.63  

Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*).

See the Top Prospects posting for issues evaluated as top prospects, and the Bull Worksheet and Bear Worksheet postings for other evaluations.
  • Top Prospects are issues upon which I would consider opening a new position because they have met these criteria: 1) The average directional index is 20 or above and rising. 2) The price has touched the boundary of the 55-day price channel, in the direction of the trade, at least once within the two most recent trading days (including the current one if the market is open). 3) The price-channel boundary in the direction of the trade has moved in that direction within the past 10 days. 4) The position is no longer subject to the two-day rule (Exit 2).
  • Not So Interesting plays are issues that are tradeable under my rules but fail to meet the criteria for Top Picks. It's not against my rules to trade these stocks, but their condition on the chart leaves me unenthusiastic about opening a new position.
  • Out of Play issues aren’t prospects for new positions under my rules because the parabolic sar phase doesn’t match the price-channel phase.

  • adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 30 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 30, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, purple for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • traj: Trajectory of the ADX, green for strengthening, red for weakening or yellow for unchanging. Note that if the adx column is orange and the trajectory column is red, then the position must be closed.
  • psar: The parabolic sar, either green for bullish or red for bearish.
  • bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
  • blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
  • bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
  • 2-day?: Marked with an "✔" if the two-day rule is in effect. Under the rule, if the price closes below the breakout level on each of the two days following breakout day, then the position must be exited.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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