Thursday, March 17, 2011

3/17 Forex

Late update: USD/MXN has hit its stop/loss and switched to neutral phase.

AUD/USD, GBP/CHF and EUR/JPY fell below the 55-day price channel, moving into bear phase. The EUR/JPY trend strengthened into the 20s on the average directional index (adx).

EUR/USD's near-term swung back into bull phase, once again matching the longer-term phase, while USD/MXN diverged, showing bull phase for the near-term but bear phase further out.

The USD/JPY trend strengthened into the 20s as measured by the adx.

Under my trading rules, positions can be open on all pairs except for USD/CAD, GBP/USD and USD/MXN.

sym chan adx traj psar

Currency Abbreviations
AUDAustralian dollar
CADCanadian dollar, also Loonie
EUREuropean Union euro
GBPBritish Pound, also Cable
JPYJapanese yen
MXNMexican peso
NZDNew Zealand dollar
USDUnited States dollar

  • chan: Channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
  • adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 30 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 30, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, purple for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • traj: Trajectory of the ADX, green for strengthening, red for weakening or yellow for unchanging. Note that if the adx column is orange and the trajectory column is red, then the position must be closed.
  • psar: The parabolic sar, either green for bullish or red for bearish.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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