Tuesday, March 29, 2011

3/30 Almanac

On Wednesday, March 30: ADP jobs preview, petroleum inventories.

There are 17 days before April options expire, 52 the May and 80 the June.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.7% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.1% in a net move up of 0.8%.

The day's extremes: Open $130.87, high $131.86, low $130.44, close $131.86.

SPY closed above the DeMark pivots after trading below their range. The next DeMark pivots are $131.15-$132.61

In total, 2.4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 2% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.66%, one basis point higher than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

This unemployment report week, which means traders will be focusing on preview reports that point to what Friday's main event might show.

The first of these is an employment report from ADP, the ginormous payroll management company, out at 8:15 a.m. Eastern. Also, sort of tangentially, Challenger, Gray & Christmas report on job cuts at 7:30 a.m.

Also look for petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. -- big for energy stocks and exchange-traded funds -- and the Mortgage Bankers report on home loans at 7:30 a.m.

Finally, meekly lurking at 3 p.m., agricultural prices, which influence inflation.

Treasury auctions 7-year notes at 1 p.m.

Three Fedsters give speeches: Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker, Kansas City Fed Pres. Tom Hoenig and St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard.

Lacker is an alternate member of monetary committee. He has a seat at the table but lacks a vote on policy. He took office under President George W. Bush. His resume shows his institutional ties are academic.

Neither Hoenig nor Bullard have a seat a the table when it comes to monetary policy. Hoenig took office under President George H.W. Bush (Dad, not the kid). Bullard took office under President George W. Bush (the kid, not Dad). Both came up through the Fed system, which makes them total Fedsters.

The Federal Reserve often posts transcripts of speeches and testimony within a few days of the event.

Trading Calendar:

It's that awkward time for verticals and other strategies that benefit from time decay. The April expiration is too near, and the May expiration, too far.

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade June or later straddles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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