On the bull list:
Yamana Gold and Silver Wheaton Corp. hit their stop/losses and moved to neutral phase.
Junk bonds -- the exchange-traded fund (etf) tracking high-yield debt issued by corporations -- pierced the 20-day lower price channel, moving to neutral.
Harvest Natural Resources turned neutral under the sudden-death rule: The average directional index was above 40 and turned down.
Also, the gold etf and Juniper turned bearish short-term within longer-term bull phases. Goldcorp and Petroleo Brasileiro saw sharp price drops but so far remain above their stop/loss levels.
On the bear list:
Google does the tricky, closing above the breakout level for two subsequent days, turning neutral, but on the last of those days breaking out again, thereby returning to bear phase and restarting the clock on the two-day rule.
State Street and the etf tracking materials also broke through their lower 55-day lines.
Besides Google, Dendreon and Starwood Hotels & Resorts also reverted to neutral under the two-day rule.
The etf tracking the Turkish stock market pierced its stop/loss and so is in neutral phase.
AMR Corp. has a near-term bull signal within a longer term bear phase.
Two stocks had notably stronger trends: Microsoft's increased from moderate to strong (aqua) and Freeport-McRan Copper & Gold's from weak to moderate (magenta).
Bull Positions
AUY, SLW pierce stop/loss.
HNR adx turns down while above 40.
JNK pierces lower 20-day line.
| sym | adx | traj | psar | bday | blevel | stop | 2-day? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A* | mar4 | $45.02 | $44.06 | ||||
| AUY | mar1 | $12.90 | $12.51 | ||||
| CNO | feb28 | $7.22 | $7.00 | ||||
| DELL | feb16 | $14.46 | $14.20 | ||||
| EWJ | feb2 | $11.25 | $10.91 | ||||
| GG | feb28 | $47.08 | $45.80 | ||||
| GLD | mar1 | $139.00 | $137.06 | ||||
| HNR | feb28 | $13.92 | $13.50 | ||||
| JNK | feb4 | $40.52 | $40.20 | ||||
| JNPR | feb4 | $38.73 | $37.57 | ||||
| LPNT | feb28 | $38.77 | $37.61 | ||||
| PBR | feb22 | $38.70 | $37.54 | ||||
| PM | feb15 | $60.14 | $58.68 | ||||
| SLV | feb17 | $30.44 | $29.53 | ||||
| SLW | feb28 | $41.89 | $40.63 | ||||
| TRGT | feb28 | $27.97 | $27.13 | ||||
| USO | feb23 | $39.48 | $38.30 | ||||
| XLU* | mar8 | $32.38 | $31.81 | ✔ | |||
| XLY | feb7 | $38.42 | $37.74 | ||||
| YUM | mar8 | $51.54 | $50.08 | ✔ |
Bear Positions
New breakouts STT, XLB.
DNDN, GOOG, HOT closed under the two-day rule.
But GOOG repierced the lower price line, for a new breakout.
TUR pierces stop/loss.
| sym | adx | traj | psar | bday | blevel | stop | 2-day? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | feb18 | $52.36 | $53.51 | ||||
| AMR | jan20 | $7.54 | $7.77 | ||||
| AMZN | mar7 | $166.90 | $171.91 | ||||
| BBY | feb11 | $33.40 | $34.40 | ||||
| BRCM | feb18 | $41.94 | $43.20 | ||||
| C | mar4 | $4.54 | $4.68 | ||||
| CREE | mar4 | $50.05 | $48.55 | ||||
| CX | feb22 | $9.10 | $9.37 | ||||
| DNDN | mar7 | $31.89 | $32.85 | &10004; | |||
| FCX | feb22 | $52.31 | $53.88 | ||||
| FTR | feb23 | $9.06 | $9.31 | ||||
| GOOG | mar9 | $587.00 | $604.61 | ✔ | |||
| GS | mar7 | $160.12 | $164.71 | ✔ | |||
| HOT | mar7 | $57.84 | $59.58 | ✔ | |||
| LVS | mar9 | $41.87 | $43.10 | ✔ | |||
| MSFT | mar1 | $26.43 | $27.22 | ||||
| NOK | feb14 | $9.08 | $9.35 | ||||
| NTAP | feb22 | $51.76 | $53.31 | ||||
| STT | mar10 | $43.45 | $44.75 | &10004; | |||
| TUR | jan27 | $62.87 | $64.76 | ||||
| USD/CAD | feb25 | C$0.98150 | C$0.99012 | ||||
| USD/CHF | feb23 | SF0.92978 | SF0.93922 | ||||
| VVUS | mar1 | $7.27 | $6.91 | ||||
| WMT | feb22 | $53.14 | $54.73 | ||||
| XLB | mar10 | $37.24 | $38.36 | &10004; |
Key
- adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 30 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 30, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, purple for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
- traj: Trajectory of the ADX, green for strengthening, red for weakening or yellow for unchanging. Note that if the adx column is orange and the trajectory column is red, then the position must be closed.
- psar: The parabolic sar, either green for bullish or red for bearish.
- bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
- blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
- stop: The current stop/loss price. Early in a bull or bear phase, this will be 5¢ below the low or above the high, respectively, on breakout day.
- 2-day?: Marked with an "✔" if the two-day rule is in effect. Under the rule, if the price closes below the breakout level on each of the two days following breakout day, then the position must be exited.
About channel analysis
Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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