Sunday, July 10, 2016

The Week Ahead: Prices, sales, Beige Book

The focus shifts to measures of the value of money this week, with the producer price index on Thursday and the consumer price index on Friday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Two other major economic reports will be published during the week, both on Friday: Retail sales at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

The FINTECH Book: The Financial Technology Handbook for Investors, Entrepreneus and Visionaries
by Susanne Chishti

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Job openings and labor turnover at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m., the Federal Reserve "Beige Book" describing economic conditions across the country and the Treasury budget, each at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and the producer price index, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The consumer price index and retail sales, each at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m., and business inventories and consumer sentiment, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.43%, down three basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Auction Monday 1 p.m.; settlement Friday.
  • 10-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.; settlement Friday.
  • 30-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.; settlement Friday.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Publication of the "Beige Book" -- on Wednesday this week -- brings the Fed glitterati out in full force to explain -- spin? -- it's significance.

Three Federal Open Market Committee members take to the podium: Kansas City Fed. Pres. Esther George on Monday and Thursday, Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester on Monday and Tuesday; and St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Tuesday and twice on Thursday

Three FOMC alternates have public appearances scheduled: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Tuesday and Friday; Philadelphia Fed Pres. Parick Harker on Wednesday and Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Wednesday and Thursday.

Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart, who has no position this year on the FOMC, speaks on Thursday

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 490 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.


Change has no constituency—and a perceived revolution has even less.

--Jack Welch, chairman, General Electric Co., "Jack: Straight from the Gut" (2001)

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 10, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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