Sunday, July 17, 2016

The Week Ahead: Housing starts

Housing starts alone among the major economic reports will be published Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Two other housing reports of lesser impact will be released: The Home Builders housing market index on Monday and existing home sales on Thursday, each at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from the housing starts report at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday.

The leading indicators report at 10 a.m. Tuesday, although not itself a leading indicator, is based on the indicators listed in this section and provides a useful You Are Here pointer for the business cycle.

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by Jordan Ellenberg

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Home Builders housing market index at 10 a.m. and the Treasury Department's international capital report at 4 p.m.

Tuesday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's survey and outlook covering business conditions in the mid-Atlantic region, each at 8:30 a.m., existing home sales and leading indicators, each at 10 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.45%, up two basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • None.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 1 p.m.

No Federal Reserve governors or bank presidents have scheduled appearances during the week. Why? Only they know, but I'm betting they're at the beach.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 504 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.


Just remember, you can do anything you set your mind to, but it takes actionperseverance, and facing your fears.

--Gillian Anderson, forward to Girl Boss: Running the Show Like the Big Chicks (1999)

    -- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 17, 2016


    Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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